MOZAMBIQUE heads to the polls on Wednesday to elect a new president, in a vote expected to extend the ruling Frelimo party’s 49-year dominance since independence from Portugal in 1975.
Daniel Chapo, aged 47, is Frelimo’s presidential candidate, hoping to succeed outgoing President Filipe Nyusi, who has reached the two-term limit. However, his main challenger is expected to be 50-year-old Venancio Mondlane, an independent candidate who has gained momentum.
In addition to the presidential election, Mozambicans will also vote for parliamentary representatives and provincial governors. The country, home to around 33 million people, has a history of conflict, including a 15-year civil war that ended in 1992 and a more recent violent jihadist insurgency in the northern Cabo Delgado region.
Both leading candidates have pledged to end the ongoing insurgency, which has displaced 1.3 million people, with more than half still unable to return home.
Vote counting will commence immediately after polls close, with initial results expected on Thursday. Full results must be submitted to the Constitutional Council within 15 days for official validation. Approximately 17 million Mozambicans are registered to vote.
The credibility of the election is under scrutiny, particularly after allegations of ballot manipulation and falsification of results in previous elections, including the 2023 local polls. Frelimo has denied any wrongdoing, but regional and international observers, including teams from the European Union, will be monitoring the process closely.
Frelimo, which established a one-party state after independence, has faced sporadic challenges from the Mozambique National Resistance (Renamo), a former rebel group that fought a brutal civil war with Frelimo. Renamo’s presidential candidate in this election is Ossufo Momade, a former military commander, though the group’s influence has waned in recent years.
Venancio Mondlane, a former Renamo member who broke away, is seen as the main opposition candidate. Mondlane, supported by the new Podemos party, has focused his campaign on addressing the frustrations of Mozambique’s youth, who struggle with unemployment and poverty.
In recent years, Mozambique’s economy has been rocked by corruption scandals, including the revelation in 2016 that over $2bn in foreign loans had been embezzled by government officials. This sent the economy into a downward spiral, exacerbating the country’s challenges.
Though Mondlane’s candidacy represents a fresh challenge to Frelimo’s rule, many analysts predict that the ruling party will retain power, as it did in the 2019 elections, where it secured over 70 percent of the vote. The election of Chapo, a former radio host and law professor, has been described by experts as being ‘carefully stage-managed’ by Frelimo.
If victorious, Chapo would become Mozambique’s first leader born after independence.
The outcome of this election is critical, not just for Mozambique’s political future, but for the country’s efforts to overcome economic instability and bring an end to the ongoing insurgency.
