AS the US presidential election approaches, Africa’s role in the candidates’ foreign-policy discussions has been limited. Yet the outcome of this election could be pivotal for African nations, especially as the continent faces rapid economic growth, rising security challenges, and strategic competition from China, Russia, and the Middle East.
Africa is home to the world’s fastest-growing populations and economies, as well as the critical mineral resources essential for a global transition to green energy. Despite this, the US has historically approached Africa as a security problem rather than a partner in growth, creating a vacuum filled by China and Persian Gulf nations. ‘The US relationship with Africa has long been reactive,’ notes a report from the Mo Ibrahim Foundation, pointing to worsening security across more than 20 African nations over the past decade.
Biden’s approach: development and strategic partnerships
President Joe Biden’s recent cancellation of a trip to Angola underscores America’s ambivalent stance toward Africa. Although Biden plans to reschedule for December, his decision to visit Angola—a country known for curbing protests and media freedom—raises questions about the US’s commitment to promoting democracy on the continent. Former US Ambassador to Botswana Michelle Gavin suggests that a Biden visit could be interpreted as tacit support for Angola’s government.
Nevertheless, the Biden administration has taken steps to bolster Africa’s economy, including the US Strategy Toward Sub-Saharan Africa launched in 2022. Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, has already toured Ghana, Tanzania, and Zambia, emphasising democratic partnerships. During a visit to Accra, Harris spoke to 8,000 young Ghanaians, signalling Washington’s support for Africa’s growing youth population and commitment to democracy. She also endorsed the African Continental Free Trade Area and launched initiatives to support Africa’s creative industries, particularly in contemporary music, which has seen a global surge in popularity.
Trump’s likely approach: security first, development second
Should former President Donald Trump reclaim office, his policies may take a more aggressive stance on security, prioritising military intervention over developmental aid. With Islamist insurgencies gaining ground in the Sahel, security analysts predict a Trump administration could increase military operations, potentially escalating regional tensions. During his first term, Trump strengthened defence ties with Morocco and Mauritania, and he may further this approach in the Sahel, especially after the costly US withdrawal from Niger earlier this year.
In exchange for Morocco’s normalisation of ties with Israel, Trump controversially recognised Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara—a move he might expand upon by boosting defence cooperation in West Africa. While Trump’s stance could appeal to African leaders focused on security, critics argue that an exclusive focus on military aid risks deepening alliances with authoritarian regimes, which may further destabilise fragile states.
The battle for critical minerals
Regardless of who wins, competition with China for Africa’s rich mineral resources is likely to dominate Washington’s African policy. As nations transition to clean energy, Africa’s cobalt, lithium, and other minerals essential to battery production have become highly prized assets. China has already secured mineral deals with several African countries, a strategy Washington is keen to counter.
Analysts believe Harris would likely continue Biden’s diplomatic approach, building partnerships through trade initiatives and targeted investments to increase US influence in the region. On the other hand, Trump’s strategy may be more transactional, prioritising mineral access through direct agreements with African governments, even at the cost of overlooking democratic principles. Both candidates, however, face the challenge of countering China’s entrenched influence, as well as investment from the Middle East and Turkey, which have increasingly engaged with African markets.
Shifting priorities: a new era of engagement or more of the same?
With Africa’s growing strategic importance, both candidates face pressure to redefine America’s approach beyond security concerns. Biden’s administration has laid the groundwork for a development-focused partnership, but a re-election campaign may see his policies tested against the realities of growing Chinese influence. Trump’s policies, meanwhile, may lean on anti-immigration measures and military deals, particularly with North African states like Mauritania and Morocco, to secure US interests in the Sahel region.
As the election draws closer, Africa’s future relationship with the US hangs in the balance. Analysts agree that the race for Africa’s resources will remain central to US policy, as both parties seek to secure their stake in the continent’s economic growth and mineral wealth.
