THE United States is grappling with a diminished influence in Africa, a region now increasingly aligning with China and Russia, amid a pressing need for strategic focus on issues ranging from expanding jihadist threats to mineral resources. As US President-elect Donald Trump’s administration takes shape, it will confront persistent blind spots in African diplomatic, economic, and security affairs, exacerbated by staffing shortages and constrained resources over the past four years.
Interviews with current and former US officials, alongside US watchdog reports, reveal that staffing reductions under President Joe Biden left key embassies in Africa ill-equipped to achieve Washington’s goals. Over this period, the US lost critical assets such as its primary intelligence base in Niger and struggled to reposition intelligence resources within the Sahel, now dominated by Russia-aligned military governments.
Cameron Hudson, an analyst and former CIA staffer focused on Africa, explained that under-resourced embassies have led to diplomatic blunders. ‘We have massive blind spots in our understanding of the political and military landscapes in the nations where we are engaged,’ Hudson noted in a Reuters interview, pointing to missteps such as the Sudan conflict in April and stalled discussions with Niger’s junta on a vital airbase.
American soft power also took a hit, with a recent Gallup poll showing China outpacing the US in popularity across Africa. Meanwhile, China has deepened its connections on the continent, advancing crucial resource projects as the US lags in fulfilling its promises.
Staffing struggles and diplomatic gaps
The diplomatic strain is underscored by significant staffing gaps at US embassies across Africa. One report from the US Office of the Inspector General cited an instance where embassy staff in the Central African Republic were so stretched that the ambassador often met officials without any note-taker. These limitations have impacted US political and economic outreach efforts, even in mineral-rich nations like Guinea, where the entire political section at the US embassy stood empty in 2023.
Though the Biden administration initiated efforts to attract talent to challenging postings, systemic issues persist, resulting in continued operational challenges in the region. According to the American Foreign Service Association, these shortages pose national security concerns, especially as other global conflicts push Africa down Washington’s list of foreign policy priorities.
Competing interests and policy shifts
As Africa remains a critical point for US interests—particularly amid strategic competition with China—Trump’s new administration may adopt a pragmatic approach, focusing on business and security gains while potentially easing its stance on democracy and human rights issues, especially in the troubled Sahel. Tibor Nagy, a retired career diplomat and former Trump Africa envoy, suggests the US must adopt a ‘transactional’ outlook, pursuing outcomes that deliver measurable benefits.
While Trump has yet to announce a dedicated Africa team, some experts predict he will prioritise efforts to support American businesses and respond to China’s dominance. With the US aiming to counteract the continent’s drift toward Beijing and Moscow, Africa’s diplomatic trajectory remains a challenge, especially as it increasingly aligns with non-Western powers.
As Washington weighs a path forward, US policymakers are left with difficult choices on how to re-engage an evolving Africa in ways that safeguard its interests and support stability across the region.
