US President-elect Donald Trump has doubled down on his promise to execute the most extensive deportation programme in American history. Reiterating his campaign rhetoric, Trump announced via his Truth Social platform that he intends to utilise the military to facilitate the removal of over 11 million undocumented immigrants. This declaration follows his controversial appointments of anti-immigration figures Stephen Miller and Tom Homan to lead the initiative.
The plan has ignited widespread debate. Critics describe it as unrealistic, insensitive, and alarmist, while supporters argue it is necessary to restore ‘law and order’ to the US immigration system. The proposed deportation plan has raised significant concerns globally, especially among countries with large populations of undocumented citizens in the United States.
Impact on African nations
The Washington DC-based Migration Policy Institute estimates that over 2.1 million sub-Saharan Africans live in the United States, with many residing without proper documentation. Countries like Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, and Ethiopia could face significant socio-economic challenges if the plan is executed.
According to data from the US Census Bureau, at least 30,000 undocumented Kenyans were living in the US by 2020. This number is likely to have increased since then. Returning thousands of deportees to countries already grappling with high unemployment and economic instability could create a humanitarian crisis.
Professor Macharia Munene, a historian and international relations expert, warns that the influx of deportees could exacerbate unemployment in nations like Kenya. ‘The potential return of tens of thousands of deported citizens could present both humanitarian and economic challenges,’ Munene Kenyan news outlet Tuko.
He noted that while some deportees may bring back skills, connections, and resources that could benefit their home countries, the majority are likely to be low-income earners, including casual labourers and workers in the informal economy. These individuals would struggle to reintegrate into societies with limited resources.
Feasibility of mass deportation
Implementing Trump’s ambitious plan faces enormous logistical, financial, and legal hurdles. Deporting over 11 million people would require significant manpower, time, and financial resources. According to the American Immigration Council, the estimated cost of mass deportation could exceed $315bn over a decade, with additional costs of nearly $1 trillion to fully build the necessary institutional capacity.
Professor Wycliffe Njororai, a scholar based in Texas, dismissed the feasibility of Trump’s plan. ‘The procedures involved are extensive. Undocumented individuals must be identified, detained, and processed through immigration courts, which are already overwhelmed. It’s not realistic to think this could be accomplished in one term,’ he told Tuko.
The logistical challenges are compounded by the limited capacity of US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), which currently has about 20,000 employees. Tracking, detaining, and deporting such a vast number of people would require an unprecedented expansion of ICE’s workforce and infrastructure.
Moreover, public sentiment and political backlash could stall the programme. Njororai pointed out that Trump’s rhetoric may rally his voter base, but implementing such policies could provoke significant opposition. ‘The economic and human costs could turn public opinion against his administration,’ he added.
Diplomatic ramifications for Africa
Trump’s proposed deportation plan could strain US-Africa relations, with far-reaching implications for diplomacy, trade, and development. Professor Munene believes the policy may drive African nations closer to China, which has steadily increased its influence on the continent.
‘China has mastered the art of forging strong ties with African nations, particularly in trade and infrastructure. If the US alienates African countries through mass deportations, it could inadvertently strengthen China’s position,’ Munene explained.
Since 2000, China has convened the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) every three years, fostering economic and political partnerships with African nations. In contrast, US engagement in Africa has been perceived as sporadic and less strategic.
Kenyan government officials, however, expressed cautious optimism about the deportation plan. Foreign Affairs Principal Secretary Korir Sing’oei argued that addressing illegal immigration could benefit both origin and host countries if executed humanely and transparently.
‘The issue of illegal migrants is a global challenge. If undocumented individuals leave the US and create opportunities for legal migrants, it could be a win-win situation,’ Sing’oei said.
A polarised perspective
Political analysts believe Trump’s mass deportation rhetoric serves a dual purpose: appealing to his voter base and reinforcing his hard-line immigration stance. Javas Bigambo, a political and governance analyst, argued that the plan would primarily target undocumented migrants rather than legal immigrants.
‘Trump’s policy targets those who entered the US illegally or overstayed their visas. It’s unlikely to affect all immigrants,’ Bigambo explained.
Furthermore, deportation trends under previous administrations provide historical context. ‘More deportations occurred under Obama than during Trump’s first term. Campaign slogans often differ from policy execution,’ Njororai noted.
Economic and social costs
Beyond legal and logistical challenges, mass deportation carries significant economic risks. Undocumented immigrants contribute to the US economy through labour, taxes, and consumer spending. Removing millions of workers could disrupt industries such as agriculture, construction, and hospitality, where undocumented workers are heavily represented.
Is mass deportation realistic?
While Trump’s plan is bold, its implementation remains highly improbable. Experts agree that the legal, economic, and logistical barriers are too significant to overcome within one presidential term. Additionally, global opposition and domestic pushback could derail the policy entirely.
Despite its impracticality, Trump’s rhetoric underscores growing anti-immigration sentiment in the US and beyond. For African nations, the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s policies highlights the need for proactive measures to address potential challenges, including reintegration programmes for deportees and stronger diplomatic engagement with the US.
As the world waits to see whether Trump’s campaign promises materialise, the debate over immigration continues to shape political and social discourse globally.
