GUINEA-BISSAU, a small West African country bordered by Senegal and Guinea, remains one of the world’s most coup-prone and politically fragile nations. Despite recent signs of economic progress, instability and corruption continue to overshadow any hope of sustainable development.
According to a report by Agence France-Presse (AFP), the country has endured decades of turmoil since gaining independence from Portugal after an 11-year liberation war led by the African Party for the Independence of Guinea-Bissau and Cape Verde (PAIGC). That party long dominated politics but was unable to bring lasting stability.
Since independence, the country has been rocked by four successful coups—most recently in 2012—and at least 17 other attempted or alleged plots. This persistent cycle of political upheaval has paralysed development, weakened institutions and opened the door to criminal networks.
Political crisis and military influence
In the aftermath of the November 2019 election, Guinea-Bissau plunged into yet another political crisis. Two candidates claimed victory, prompting months of confusion and division. The stalemate ended only in April 2020 when the regional bloc ECOWAS recognised Umaro Sissoco Embaló as president.
A former prime minister and reserve brigadier general, Embaló succeeded José Mário Vaz—himself notable as the first president since multiparty elections in 1994 to finish his term without being ousted or assassinated. During Vaz’s five-year tenure, however, instability still reigned: he cycled through seven prime ministers.
In October 2021, the government rejected rumours of another coup, but doubts remained. That same year, Embaló refused a US extradition request for former army chief and coup leader António Indjai, accused of smuggling cocaine for Colombia’s FARC rebels.
A hub for the cocaine trade
The country’s chronic dysfunction has created fertile ground for South American drug traffickers. In September 2024, five Latin American nationals were arrested in Bissau after authorities seized 2.6 tonnes of cocaine flown in from Venezuela.
A separate case made international headlines when Malam Bacai Sanhá Jr.—son of a former president—was sentenced in the United States for his role in a transnational heroin trafficking conspiracy. US prosecutors alleged that he intended to fund a coup in Guinea-Bissau and establish a narco-regime.
Transparency International’s 2024 rankings placed Guinea-Bissau 158th out of 180 countries in terms of perceived corruption, highlighting the entrenched nature of graft in both civil and military sectors.
Economic growth vs human hardship
Despite these challenges, the economy has shown signs of life. Agriculture remains the mainstay of the economy, particularly cashew nut production, where Guinea-Bissau ranks among the world’s top exporters.
The African Development Bank reported that the economy grew by 4.3 percent in 2023 and projects 5.2 percent growth in 2025. Yet these numbers offer little comfort to the majority of citizens. About 25 percent of the population lives on less than $1.90 a day, and the country ranks 179th out of 193 on the UN Human Development Index.
With a population of 2.2 million and a rich mix of ethnicities and languages, Guinea-Bissau is blessed with cultural diversity and natural resources, including the pristine Bijagós archipelago off its Atlantic coast. But unless the cycle of political turmoil is broken, these assets will remain underexploited.
Healthcare remains rudimentary, with average life expectancy stuck at just 60 years. Until governance improves and the grip of the military weakens, Guinea-Bissau is likely to remain a troubled crossroads for both opportunity and exploitation.
