Four well-known individuals were left out of the October 25 presidential election, raising questions about the fairness and competitiveness of the contest and leaving COTE d’Ivoire’s opposition groups frantically searching for alternatives. According to AFP, political activist Charles Blé Goudé, former president Laurent Gbagbo, exiled former Prime Minister Guillaume Soro, and Tidjane Thiam, leader of the centre-right Democratic Party of Côte d’Ivoire (PDCI), are among those excluded. Due to legal convictions or, in Thiam’s case, a court challenge to his nationality, none of the four are permitted to run for office or cast ballots.
No time for roll revisions, says commission
The Independent Electoral Commission (CEI) has declared that any last-minute reinstatements will not be possible due to the inability to meet the August 26 deadline for updating the electoral roll. West Africa security analyst William Assanvo said, “In the current context, nothing indicates we are heading towards such a decision,” in an interview with AFP. An amnesty law or presidential pardon would be necessary for a return, even for Gbagbo, Blé Goudé, and Soro, whose disqualifications are based on prior convictions; neither of these options seems to be in the cards.
Proxy candidate strategy ruled out
A proxy candidate workaround—like the strategy used in Senegal by Ousmane Sonko—is unlikely to work here.
‘Gbagbo never imagined such a scenario. He is part of the generation that blocks the political horizon of the youth in his party,’ said Francis Akindes, a professor at Bouaké University.
Meanwhile, an associate of Thiam told AFP: ‘If we put forward someone else with a chance of winning, they too will be eliminated.’
Opposition unity in limbo, boycott looms
With leading figures blocked and no backup plan in motion, calls for an election boycott are bubbling up again. However, Gbagbo declared in 2023: ‘We will never again miss elections.’
Still, analysts say popular engagement is low. ‘This political drama is happening among elites the youth no longer relate to,’ Akindes added
CAP-CI: a fractured front
The Coalition for Peaceful Change (CAP-CI) is a larger opposition coalition that includes Thiam’s PDCI, Gbagbo’s PPA-CI, and Blé Goudé’s Cojep party. Former Prime Minister Pascal Affi N’Guessan and former First Lady Simone Gbagbo are CAP-CI’s two current presidential candidates. However, the alliance has so far refused to support a single candidate, preferring to concentrate on calls for national debate and electoral reform. The government rejects any interference in the election process and maintains that the disqualifications are judicial in nature rather than political. The opposition in Côte d’Ivoire now faces a narrowing field and a tough decision: unite or give up, as the race draws near and legal avenues close.
