Ethiopia’s latest accusation that Eritrea has joined forces with the outlawed Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has reignited fears of another conflict in the Horn of Africa. In a letter to UN Secretary-General António Guterres, Ethiopia’s foreign ministry alleged that both Eritrea and the TPLF are “actively preparing to wage war” against Addis Ababa — a serious claim that signals rising hostility between two uneasy neighbours.
The Ethiopian government also accused Eritrea and remnants of the TPLF of funding and directing rebel groups in the Amhara region, where federal forces have battled local insurgents for years. Both Eritrea’s Information Minister Yemane Ghebremeskel and the TPLF have declined to comment, but the silence has done little to ease the growing tension.
This latest accusation threatens to reopen deep scars in a region still recovering from decades of mistrust and bloodshed. For many, it feels like history is beginning to repeat itself — an echo of old rivalries that never truly disappeared.
When Eritrea gained independence from Ethiopia in 1993 after a long and brutal 30-year struggle, the world celebrated a new chapter of peace. But by 1998, border disputes over the town of Badme sparked a devastating two-year war that claimed tens of thousands of lives and shattered any hope of harmony.
A fragile truce in 2000 brought silence but not trust. For nearly two decades, both nations lived in a cold peace — no war, no friendship. Then came the turning point in 2018, when Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed reached out to President Isaias Afwerki, rekindling ties and earning Abiy the Nobel Peace Prize a year later. But that moment of unity soon gave way to new divisions.
When war broke out in Tigray in 2020, Eritrean troops fought alongside Ethiopian forces against the TPLF — the same group now accused of plotting with Asmara. The war left unimaginable destruction, with as many as 600,000 lives lost, according to African Union estimates. It also left behind bitterness and trauma that time has struggled to heal.
Today, the relationship between Abiy and Afwerki has grown frosty once again. The latest point of tension is Ethiopia’s push for sea access — something Abiy describes as vital for his country’s economic survival. Landlocked since Eritrea’s independence, Ethiopia has long viewed its lack of a port as a strategic weakness. But in Asmara’s eyes, Addis Ababa’s campaign looks less like necessity and more like ambition.
Ethiopia’s Foreign Minister Gedion Timothewos accused Eritrea of using the port debate to “justify sinister plans” against Ethiopia. Analysts warn that if diplomacy fails, the Red Sea could once again become the stage for another regional conflict. Western observers have even accused Eritrea of rebuilding its army and destabilising its neighbours, charges Asmara continues to deny.
Beyond their border, the ripples are already spreading. Eritrea’s growing friendship with Egypt, a nation locked in dispute with Ethiopia over the Nile dam project, could deepen Addis Ababa’s isolation. With internal unrest and economic strain weighing heavily on Abiy’s government, any renewed hostility with Eritrea could push the region to the brink.
For now, Ethiopia insists it still seeks dialogue, not war. But the tone of its accusations — and the history between both nations — paints a troubling picture. The Horn of Africa stands once again on shaky ground, where peace feels more like a pause than a promise.
