a special report has delivered a damning review of Nigeria’s 2025 economic performance, describing the “Budget of Restoration” as largely unimplemented and warning that the country is heading toward an unprecedented fiscal crisis if urgent corrections are not made.
According to Sobowale, Nigeria’s economy in 2025 operated like a “twin-engine aircraft flying with one engine,” with relatively sound monetary policy undermined by what he called ruinous fiscal management. While GDP growth surprised on the upside at nearly 4 percent, the gains were unevenly distributed, widening the gap between the rich and the poor as the middle class continued to shrink.
He noted that farmers, workers, and low-income earners bore the brunt of the hardship, with many farmers reportedly unwilling to return to farming in 2026. Labour tensions also escalated, with the Nigeria Labour Congress preparing for protests and a possible nationwide strike.
At the heart of the crisis, Sobowale said, was a massive revenue failure. Out of a projected ₦40.8 trillion in revenue for 2025, the Federal Government reportedly generated only about ₦10.7 trillion, leaving a shortfall of roughly ₦30 trillion. Oil revenue was the biggest disappointment, as production consistently fell below budget assumptions, while millions of barrels of Nigerian crude remained unsold toward the end of the year.
He criticised the continued use of unrealistic oil production benchmarks, describing them as “persistent illusions” that have derailed budgets for over a decade. Nigeria, he noted, failed to achieve even 1.7 million barrels per day in 2025 and shockingly imported crude oil from the United States for the first time since 1959.
Sobowale warned that the same mistakes have been repeated in the 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework and the proposed 2026 budget. Despite projecting ₦34.33 trillion in revenue, a ₦20.12 trillion fiscal deficit, and ₦17.89 trillion in new borrowing, he argued that the assumptions remain detached from economic realities and are likely to worsen Nigeria’s debt burden.
He highlighted alarming indicators showing that salaries and debt servicing already consume more than total government revenue, raising the risk of payment defaults, delayed salaries, and further borrowing to fund basic obligations.
However, Sobowale acknowledged a bright spot in monetary policy. He praised Central Bank Governor Yemi Cardoso for stabilising the exchange rate and restoring confidence, leading to increased trade, exports, and foreign direct investment. He said inflationary pressure has eased slightly, though fiscal weaknesses continue to fuel price increases.
Still, external threats loom. Sobowale warned that new US travel restrictions and global geopolitical tensions could further restrict trade, investment, and growth, compounding Nigeria’s economic challenges.
In conclusion, he described the 2025 budget as a failure rescued only by strong monetary policy, warning that without competent fiscal management, the masses should expect worsening conditions in 2026 rather than relief.
