AfCFTA or Nothing: Why African Leaders Are Racing Against Time to Secure the Continent’s Economic Future
African leaders are sounding the alarm—and this time, the urgency is real. With renewed trade tensions and punitive tariffs coming from major global powers like the United States, the African continent is being forced to confront a hard truth: the world won’t wait for Africa to catch up.
Lesotho is already feeling the heat, facing U.S. tariffs as high as 50% under returning President Donald Trump’s tough trade policies. But Lesotho isn’t alone. The message from African leaders is loud and clear—the continent must act fast to shield itself from external shocks that threaten jobs, industries, and long-term growth.
“We’ve got to accelerate the establishment of our own value chain systems,” said Wamkele Mene, Secretary-General of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). Speaking to Reuters, he didn’t sugarcoat the reality: “The weaponisation of trade policy and investment nationalism—it’s unprecedented. The lesson is clear: we are on our own as a continent.”
A Brilliant Idea Still Crawling
When AfCFTA launched in 2021, it was hailed as a game-changer—uniting 1.4 billion Africans under a single trade umbrella. The dream? Boost intra-African trade, create jobs, and give the continent a stronger seat at the global economic table. But nearly four years on, the promise has stalled. Of the 49 countries that ratified the deal, only 24 are actively trading under it.
There’s been some progress. According to Afreximbank, intra-African trade jumped 12.4% to hit $208 billion last year. The World Bank projects an 81% increase in exports within Africa if things are done right. But right now, implementation is patchy at best. Raheema Parker of Oxford Economics points to the usual suspects: weak institutions, poor governance, and overwhelming informality in trade.
Roads, Rails, and Red Tape
One of the biggest hurdles? Infrastructure—or rather, the lack of it. Africa needs over $100 billion a year in investment to fix its crumbling roads, ports, and rail lines. Since 2020, the African Development Bank and Afreximbank have pooled $65 billion into logistics projects, but that’s just a drop in the ocean.
“If we don’t build bridges and rail links, AfCFTA will remain a paper promise,” warned Standard Bank CEO Bill Blackie.
And even where roads exist, customs bottlenecks and border delays are killing efficiency. Abbas Mahamat Tolli, Chad’s former finance minister, didn’t mince words: “We need to diminish all the commercial barriers.”
The Dollar Dilemma
Another thorny issue? The dollar. Despite having over 40 national currencies, nearly 66% of cross-border transactions in Africa still depend on the greenback. That adds unnecessary costs and exposes trade to global currency shocks.
Afreximbank is pushing hard to change that. Its chief economist, Yemi Kale, is championing local-currency payments through the Pan-African Payments and Settlement System (PAPSS), already linked to 16 central banks. “We must break the dollar addiction,” Kale insists. “It’s time for African money to fund African trade.”
The Bigger Picture
Despite the many challenges, African leaders still see AfCFTA as the continent’s best shot at rewriting its economic story. Kenyan President William Ruto captured the sentiment best: “We have a generational chance to build value chains that keep wealth on the continent, develop competitive industries, and create millions of jobs.”
As G20 finance ministers gather in Durban, the stakes couldn’t be higher. AfCFTA is no longer a diplomatic talking point. For many African economies, it’s now the difference between survival and stagnation.
The message from the continent is crystal clear: we either trade with ourselves, or we risk being traded out of the future.
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