AS the adage goes, there is no smoke without fire. Thus, when a spokesman in Ukraine was quoted as suggesting that his country’s military intelligence agency (GUR) had passed on sensitive information to Tuareg separatists and jihadist insurgents in the Sahel that led to the deaths of 84 Russian Wagner mercenaries and 47 Malian soldiers, Bamako quickly severed diplomatic ties with Kyiv.
Realising the gravity of the statement, GUR spokesman Andriy Yusov attempted to ‘clarify’ what had been initially put out: ‘The rebels received all the necessary information they needed, and not just the information, which allowed [them] to conduct a successful military operation against Russian perpetrators of war crimes. We certainly won’t go into details now – you will see more of this in the future,’ Yusov stated.
The last sentence, though, is pertinent. Why should Ukraine extend its war with Russia in Europe to Africa? The war between the two Eastern European countries has nothing to do with Africa.
Indeed, what Ukraine is suggesting is that it is supporting terrorist activities in Africa because it wants to hit back at Russia. This is wrong. European countries cannot be fermenting armed conflict and disorder in Africa and then complain when refugees running away from violence turn up in Europe.
Wherever there are armed conflicts in Africa today, external forces are meddling in them because they want to extend their own violence to the continent. Ukraine is also involved in the disastrous conflict in Sudan.
It is providing military assistance to the government of General Abdel al-Burhan who heads the Sudanese Armed Forces pitted against the Rapid Support Forces of Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo that are backed by Russia. Meanwhile, while the UAE is on the side of Dagalo, the Gulf state is the using the conflict to further it own aims.
In the midst of sabre-rattling in Europe and Asia, where does Africa fit in?
The UAE is raking in billions of dollars from illegal export of gold from Sudan. It is also using RSF fighters to take part in the war in Yemen.
In the midst of the UAE’s attempts to expand its influence in the Middle East and East Africa, the conflict that erupted in Sudan in April 2023 has left the country in a calamitous state. The UN has gone on to warn that foreign interference in Sudan is prolonging the conflict and exacerbating the humanitarian crisis in the country.
Recently, the African Union Special Envoy for the Prevention of the Crime of Genocide and Other Mass Atrocities, Adama Dieng, stated: ‘What is going on in Sudan should be a source of shame and indeed a scar on the conscience of our collective humanity. We are spectacularly failing not only the people of Sudan but also all those who work tirelessly in the service of peace.’
Africa is prone to foreign interference in conflict on the continent because those in authority – civilian or military – do not appear to be up to the challenge of dealing with Africa’s problems without turning to external forces for help. The military coups in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger happened because, according to the soldiers, the various civilian governments were not giving enough backing to the army fighting against the separatists and jihadists.
But now that the soldiers are in power, they have not been able to counter the threat. For starters, they ousted French and US forces that were based in these countries and replaced them with Russian private military contractors who have been accused of human rights abuses and looting.
Nothing has changed. The military leaders in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger still cannot find a solution to the conflicts raging in their region. This begs the question: why were the soldiers blaming the civilian leaders for failing to support their armed forces?
It also leads to another pertinent question. Why do African governments spend the bulk of their annual budgets on their armed forces without much to show for it? In 2023, the total was $56.1bn, which is 2.1 per cent of total worldwide military spending – albeit rather low.
Not surprising, Africa is seen as the weakest link in the global military stakes. In the midst of sabre-rattling in Europe over the Russian invasion of Ukraine and in Asia with China threatening to invade Taiwan, where does Africa fit in? All of the opposing forces are involved in Africa in one way or the other. So, if these antagonists start their war, will Africa be left out of the conflict?
In the two ‘World Wars’ (1914-1918 and 1939-1945) ignited by bellicose Europeans, Africans had no say about their involvement because they were under the rule of the European colonial powers that were confronting each other. African soldiers fought in both wars that had nothing to do with them.
We are once again hearing of threats of a ‘Third World War’. If it happens, it will not be down to Africa. As we are currently witnessing on the continent, it is highly likely that Africa will once again be sucked into other people’s war.
But it should not be the case this time round.
This article and related analyses and comment can be found in the current edition of Africa Briefing Magazine
