The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has projected that Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), popularly known as petrol, could rise to about ₦950 per litre in 2026. The warning comes as part of the bank’s 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook, which assumes an average crude oil price of $55 per barrel next year.
Currently, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery sells petrol at a gantry price of ₦699 per litre, while MRS Oil, an authorised distributor, retails it at ₦739 per litre. The CBN’s projection takes into account an average exchange rate of N1,451.63/$ in Q4 2025 and N1,400/$ in 2026, supported by stronger capital inflows, improved foreign exchange market efficiency, and a current account surplus.
The bank also assumed domestic crude production of about 1.5 million barrels per day throughout the forecast period. According to the CBN, increased private-sector investment in local refining, rising crude output, better security around oil assets, and expanding refining capacity will help contain energy costs and support growth.
CBN further predicted that headline inflation will ease to 12.94 per cent in 2026 from an estimated 21.26 per cent in 2025, attributing the moderation to lower food prices and easing petrol costs driven by competition in the midstream sector.
Earlier, petrol prices in many locations touched around ₦900 per litre before dropping when Dangote Petroleum Refinery reduced its ex-gantry price from ₦828 to ₦699. The refinery warned that heavy reliance on imports could push petrol prices as high as ₦1,400 per litre, noting that large-scale local production has helped stabilise the downstream market and reduce volatility.
