IN a significant diplomatic move, Ethiopia’s Defence Minister Aisha Mohammed Mussa visited Somalia on Thursday, marking the first high-level bilateral visit since relations soured over a controversial naval base agreement with Somaliland.
Ali Omar, Somalia’s state minister for foreign affairs, confirmed the visit but declined to elaborate on the agenda. Ethiopia’s government has yet to comment on the trip.
The naval base controversy
Tensions escalated a year ago when Ethiopia signed a preliminary deal with Somaliland, a self-declared autonomous region of Somalia. The agreement proposed leasing a stretch of Somaliland’s coastline to Ethiopia for a naval base and commercial port in exchange for potential recognition of Somaliland’s independence.
Mogadishu, which views Somaliland as an integral part of its territory, condemned the deal as an act of aggression and threatened to expel Ethiopia’s troops from Somalia if Addis Ababa did not renounce the agreement.
Mediation and regional implications
The fallout led to months of hostile rhetoric and inconclusive international mediation efforts. However, progress was made on December 11, when Somalia and Ethiopia, following talks in Turkey, agreed to work together to resolve their differences. Technical negotiations are set to begin by the end of February.
Regional analysts have expressed concern over the potential for instability in the Horn of Africa should the dispute escalate. Ethiopia’s military presence in Somalia—estimated at up to 10,000 troops—is vital in the fight against al-Shabaab, an al-Qaeda affiliate waging an insurgency since 2007.
Strategic shifts and alliances
Somalia’s response to the Somaliland deal has included forging closer ties with Ethiopia’s rivals, Egypt and Eritrea, raising fears of shifting alliances in the region. Meanwhile, Ethiopia faces the challenge of balancing its strategic interests in Somaliland with its commitments as part of the African Union peacekeeping mission in Somalia.
Path to Reconciliation
Aisha Mohammed Mussa’s visit signals a potential thaw in relations as both nations work to address lingering tensions. The outcome of the upcoming technical negotiations will be crucial in determining whether Ethiopia and Somalia can chart a collaborative path forward.
The Horn of Africa remains on edge, with regional stability hanging in the balance as Ethiopia and Somalia navigate their fraught relationship.
