Experts Warn: U.S. Military Intervention in Nigeria Could Be a Costly Mistake

 

The U.S. military has expressed doubts about President Donald Trump’s directive for a potential military intervention in Nigeria, warning that such an operation would be unlikely to end the country’s decades-long insurgency. Despite Trump’s order for the Pentagon to “protect Christians from Islamic militants,” defense officials admit that only an Iraq- or Afghanistan-style campaign could make a real impact — a move no one is seriously considering.

American military planners, according to reports, have drafted several limited-response options, including airstrikes on militant compounds, drone surveillance, and joint raids with Nigerian forces. However, officials say these efforts would have only minimal effects, noting that groups like Boko Haram and ISIS-West Africa have entrenched themselves in northern Nigeria for nearly two decades.

Retired U.S. Army Major General Paul Eaton called the idea “a fiasco waiting to happen,” warning that America could repeat the mistakes of past Middle East interventions. The complexity of Nigeria’s conflict — rooted not only in extremism but also in land disputes, corruption, and ethnic tensions — makes it nearly impossible to solve through force alone.

Further complicating matters, the U.S. recently lost access to its drone bases in Niger, now under Russian influence, leaving few viable locations to launch strikes from. Even if airstrikes were launched, officials said, they would create “shock and awe” without addressing the underlying causes of violence.

The Nigerian government has maintained that while it welcomes intelligence and logistical support, it will not compromise its sovereignty. Military analysts warn that any unilateral action by the U.S. could strain diplomatic ties and destabilize the wider West African region.

In essence, America’s challenge in Nigeria is not just about weapons or airpower — it’s about understanding a deeply rooted crisis where religion, politics, and poverty collide. As one official put it: “You can bomb militants, but you can’t bomb mistrust, hunger, or history.”