DESPITE mounting global trade tensions and the freeze on US aid under President Donald Trump, widescale credit downgrades across Africa remain unlikely, according to Fitch Ratings. Speaking during a recent webinar, Fitch analysts emphasised that Africa’s limited integration into global supply chains, as well as key domestic reforms, are helping the continent weather economic pressures.
Paul Gamble, head of Middle East and Africa Sovereign Ratings at Fitch, explained that although some African nations face fiscal strain due to halted US funding, overall credit ratings are holding steady.
‘The reforms that we’ve seen really put the region in a better position to absorb some of these shocks,’ Gamble said. ‘The impact for the ratings looks manageable.’
Africa’s unique trade position
Fitch highlighted that Africa’s export composition and relatively weaker ties to global manufacturing chains—as compared to Asia—have insulated it from the full brunt of global tariff disruptions. While trade tensions continue to escalate worldwide, their effect on African economies has so far been muted.
Still, the suspension of US foreign aid is not without repercussions. Sub-Saharan Africa, one of the biggest recipients of funding from the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), is already feeling the effects of the freeze.
Countries like Ethiopia—which relies on US assistance for around 80 percent of its foreign exchange reserves—are among the most vulnerable. Mozambique, Uganda, and Lesotho are also facing heightened fiscal risks as development projects risk stalling.
Stable outlooks amidst uncertainty
Despite these risks, several African countries continue to hold firm credit positions. South Africa, Namibia, and Cote d’Ivoire are cited by Fitch as relatively shielded from the current economic turbulence. Nigeria and the Seychelles, meanwhile, have maintained positive credit outlooks due to sustained reforms, suggesting future upgrades may be on the horizon.
Fitch’s Gamble pointed out that structural changes and governance improvements in these countries have built buffers against external shocks.
Shifting focus: from aid to minerals
Another key theme raised by Fitch is the shift in US engagement with Africa—from developmental aid to strategic investments in critical minerals. Gamble suggested this change could heighten US-China rivalry on the continent.
‘Africa will be a playing field for US-China tensions,’ he said, warning that Washington’s approach is becoming ‘more opportunistic, transactional’, driven by access to rare earths and other strategic resources rather than broad-based development.
This pivot is already visible in the Democratic Republic of Congo, where the US plans to invest billions into its minerals sector. Congo, which supplies key inputs for electric vehicles and mobile phones, is currently dominated by Chinese mining companies.
Multilateral institutions may fill the gap
As US aid retracts, Fitch also sees a growing role for African-led multilateral financial institutions. Arnaud Louis, a senior director at Fitch, noted that such institutions may become increasingly central in funding development and maintaining economic stability in the region.
‘African-owned multilateral banks might become more important institutions in this shifting landscape,’ Louis said during the webinar.
With aid flows becoming more conditional and strategic, the future of African economic stability may rest increasingly in the hands of local reforms, regional institutions, and smart global partnerships.
