IN a dramatic shift, France’s long-standing influence in Africa is facing its greatest challenge in decades. Two key allies, Chad and Senegal, have signalled a move to redefine their relationships with Paris, marking a pivotal moment in the post-colonial dynamic.
Chad, once a cornerstone of French-African relations, announced on its Independence Day the end of its defence cooperation with France. This was quickly followed by Senegal’s President Bassirou Diomaye Faye declaring that the presence of French troops in Senegal would soon be a thing of the past. ‘Just because the French have been here since the slavery period doesn’t mean it’s impossible to do otherwise,’ said Faye.
Chad’s defiant break
Chad’s decision has sent shockwaves through the Sahel region, where France has historically played a dominant military role. The timing of the announcement was particularly significant, coinciding with French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot’s visit to Chad and Ethiopia. French officials, caught off guard, initially remained silent before stating they were in ‘close dialogue’ with Chad about the future of their partnership.
‘Chad’s decision marks the final nail in the coffin of France’s post-colonial military dominance in the Sahel,’ said Mucahid Durmaz, senior analyst at Verisk Maplecroft. The move reflects a broader trend of diminishing French influence across West Africa, following the expulsion of French forces from Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso.
A new strategy for France?
Facing mounting resistance, France is rethinking its military presence on the continent. A report by Jean-Marie Bockel, President Emmanuel Macron’s personal envoy for Africa, outlines a reduced troop presence in all African bases except Djibouti. While the details remain confidential, officials suggest a shift towards more specialised military support, including training in airspace surveillance and drone operations.
‘Permanent military bases can be politically weaponised against you,’ noted Will Brown, senior policy fellow at the European Centre for Foreign Relations. ‘Temporary deployments and focused cooperation may prove more sustainable.’
Economic pivot to Anglophone Africa
Amid the military upheaval, France is bolstering its economic ties with Africa’s anglophone nations. Nigeria and South Africa are now France’s largest trading partners on the continent. Macron recently hosted Nigerian President Bola Tinubu, signalling a strategic pivot to nations less entwined with France’s colonial legacy.
The rise of anti-French sentiment
Public discontent with French policies has been growing across Francophone Africa, with street protests and government critiques becoming more frequent. Leaders like Chad’s President Mahamat Deby have sought alternative alliances, including with Russia, Turkey, and the UAE. Earlier this year, Deby visited Moscow to strengthen ties, while Russian mercenaries from the Wagner Group continue to expand their presence in the region.
‘Deby would not have taken this step without security guarantees from another actor,’ said Brown. ‘Turkey and the UAE have been particularly active in supporting Chad.’
Uncertain security landscape
The withdrawal of French troops has left a significant security vacuum. In Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso, extremist attacks and civilian casualties have surged. Over 3,000 civilians were killed in the first half of this year, a 25 percent increase from the previous six months, according to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project.
While Russian forces fill some of the gaps left by French troops, analysts caution against over-reliance on Wagner mercenaries. ‘These forces are financed by junta governments with limited resources,’ said Shaantanu Shankar of the Economist Intelligence Unit. ‘The situation remains volatile.’
A turning point for France and Africa
France’s diminishing role in Africa reflects a seismic shift in the continent’s post-colonial trajectory. As Chad, Senegal, and other nations assert their sovereignty, the era of Françafrique appears to be fading. This transformation underscores the need for Paris to reimagine its partnerships—balancing respect for African autonomy with strategic cooperation in a rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape.
