EXIT polls from the December 7, 2024 Ghana elections, conducted by independent research company Global InfoAnalytics, reveal that President-elect John Dramani Mahama (JDM) emerged as the preferred candidate in the crucial swing regions of Greater Accra, Central, and Western. JDM captured 58 percent of votes, compared to Dr Mahamudu Bawumia (DMB)’s 34 percent and 8 percent for other candidates.
This result underscores a seismic shift from the 2020 elections, where JDM and outgoing President Nana Akufo-Addo were tied with 49.1 percent and 49.2 percent, respectively. Notably, the data highlights significant voter migration, with 29 percent of Nana Addo’s 2020 supporters switching allegiance to JDM, while only 63 percent remained with DMB.
Vote-buying prevalence and impact
The exit poll, released Friday morning, also shed light on vote-buying, a contentious election issue. About 24 percent of voters witnessed inducements, and 38 percent admitted receiving them. The NPP was implicated in 56 percent of cases, the NDC in 23 percent, and 15 percent from both parties. Despite these tactics, JDM still secured the majority of votes among recipients, with 55 percent choosing him over DMB’s 35 percent.
Economic and educational factors shape results
Economic concerns were pivotal in shaping voter preferences. Among voters focused on economic issues, JDM secured 62 percent, compared to DMB’s 32 percent. His lead extended across all educational levels, including those with tertiary qualifications, where he earned 63 percent of votes.
Demographic and religious breakdown
Mahama dominated among Christians and Muslims, capturing 58 percent and 60 percent of their votes, respectively. He also led among most ethnic groups, except the Gur, where DMB narrowly won, and the Mande, where the race was tied.
Timely decisions favoured Mahama
JDM’s support was strongest among voters who made up their minds over a year ago (60 percent) and remained steady among late deciders, with 50 percent backing him in the final week before voting. Meanwhile, DMB’s support stagnated, reflecting a late-campaign decline.
What the polls mean for Ghana’s future
These results suggest that dissatisfaction with the ruling NPP government, particularly on economic performance, played a critical role in the voter shift. Mahama’s strategic focus on addressing economic hardships resonated strongly with the electorate, marking a clear mandate for change.
As Ghana reflects on this election, the data provides a blueprint for understanding voter priorities and the growing importance of addressing systemic economic concerns.
