Ghana is on track to be classified as a higher middle-income country by April 2026, as recent economic data shows significant growth in GDP and per capita income. Provisional figures for 2025 indicate that the country’s GDP could surpass $100 billion for the first time, with average incomes potentially rising above $3,000, according to Finance Ministry officials and independent economists.
At the Deloitte Economic Dialogue on the 2026 budget, Samuel Arkhurst, director for the real sector at the Finance Ministry, noted that strong real growth, a stabilised exchange rate, and ongoing reforms under the IMF’s Extended Credit Facility programme have driven this expansion. Ghana’s per capita income, which hovered below $2,000 a decade ago, is now expected to rise above $3,000 when full 2025 data is finalised.
Economists, including Dr. Adu Owusu Sarkodie, describe the potential leap to higher middle-income status as significant, placing Ghana alongside countries like Indonesia and El Salvador. However, he stressed that the achievement depends on sustaining GDP growth, raising incomes, managing population growth, and maintaining exchange rate stability to ensure that dollar-denominated measures reflect real progress.
Analysts caution that statistical advancement alone will not guarantee improvements in living standards. Dr. Sarkodie emphasised the need for inclusive growth, stressing that sectors like agriculture and manufacturing must expand alongside services to reduce inequality and provide opportunities for low-skilled workers. He argued that improvements in education, healthcare, and infrastructure are crucial to fully realise the benefits of higher middle-income status.
President John Mahama has urged the Finance Ministry and Bank of Ghana to consolidate recent gains, highlighting the importance of a stable cedi and credible monetary policy in anchoring inflation expectations. Bank of Ghana Governor Dr. Johnson Asiama noted that defending the currency has helped reduce inflation and fuel costs, supporting households and businesses. Economists believe that leveraging current economic strength to accelerate industrialisation, boost exports, and expand social investment will ensure Ghana’s transition to higher middle-income status translates into broad, sustainable prosperity.