GUINEA’S military leader, General Mamady Doumbouya, has declared 2025 a decisive year for returning the nation to constitutional order. However, critics are sceptical as key milestones promised since the 2021 coup remain unfulfilled.
In a New Year’s address, Doumbouya announced plans to set the date for a constitutional referendum in the first quarter of 2025. ‘In 2025, we will collectively work to establish the foundations for general elections,’ he stated, without specifying a timeline for the transition.
Stalled transition
Doumbouya seized power in a September 2021 coup, ousting then-President Alpha Condé. Under pressure from international bodies, the junta initially promised a constitutional referendum and civilian elections by the end of 2024. However, the deadlines have been missed, raising concerns over the military’s commitment to the transition.
Opposition groups and civil society have grown increasingly frustrated. Demonstrations are planned in Conakry on January 6 to demand the junta’s departure and the establishment of a civilian-led transitional government.
Mounting repression
Since the coup, Guinea has seen a surge in political crackdowns. Opposition leaders face arrests, court trials, or exile. The deaths of two former military officers and a doctor in custody under unclear circumstances have further strained trust in the junta.
Journalists have not been spared. Earlier this month, a reporter from the news site Lerevelateur224 was detained by unidentified men in uniform. His whereabouts remain unknown, sparking outrage among press unions and human rights groups.
A crucial year ahead
As international pressure mounts and internal dissent grows, the junta’s ability to navigate 2025 will be pivotal. Opposition leaders argue that promises of reform are a smokescreen to extend military rule. Meanwhile, Doumbouya’s vague declarations have done little to assure critics.
With Guinea’s future in the balance, all eyes will be on the junta’s next steps. Whether the promised constitutional referendum and elections materialise or the military tightens its grip on power, 2025 is set to be a defining year for the West African nation.
