German industry recorded a slight increase in orders before the Iran war. New business rose 0.9 percent in February compared to the previous month, like that Federal Statistical Office announced. However, economists had expected an increase of two percent. Without large orders, orders were up 3.5 percent in February. In January it was 11.1 percent the sharpest decline in around two years.
“This is a nice increase, but it is of little value because of the Iran war,” said chief economist Alexander Krüger from Hauck Aufhäuser Lamp Privatbank. The reported increase in orders refers to February, when in Iran no war had yet been waged.
“The uncertainty caused by the conflict may have already inhibited companies from awarding contracts in March“, said Krüger. “Because of the energy price shock, new price calculations are also required.” It remains to be seen whether the geopolitical situation will really calm down after the ceasefire planned for two weeks and the Strait of Hormuz, which is important for energy supplies, will be opened.
Orders in industry continue to fluctuate
“It is clear that the industry will have to deal with a significantly higher price of crude oil this year,” said the chief economist. This reduces the positive impulses that should have come from the federal government’s fiscal package with additional spending on infrastructure and defense.
“Even if the announced ceasefire should last, companies will have to prepare for higher cost levels in the long term,” said economic expert Jupp Zenzen from the German Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DIHK). “This remains more than a dampener for the industrial economy.”
The order situation in industry is currently still fluctuating, said the Federal Ministry of Economics. The upward trend since August 2025 is continuing. “However, this positive development is likely as a result of the Energy price shocks in connection with the escalated conflict in the Middle East.”