Rwandan President Paul Kagame has argued that not all military takeovers in Africa are the same, categorising them into “good coups” and “bad coups.” Speaking in Kigali on November 29, shortly after the latest power shift in Guinea-Bissau, Kagame offered his assessment of why coups continue to recur across the continent.
Motives Define the Coup
Kagame explained that the intentions behind a coup are central to judging its character. He described “bad coups” as those driven by individuals who act recklessly, believing that holding a gun gives them the right to seize power.
By contrast, he suggested that some coups may arise from prolonged frustration with leaders and governance failures. While these may reflect genuine political grievances, Kagame cautioned that such takeovers do not guarantee positive outcomes. He did not explicitly classify Guinea-Bissau’s recent coup, noting that its long-term effects remain uncertain.
Guinea-Bissau’s Fragile Transition
The coup in Guinea-Bissau occurred on November 26, amid tensions over presidential election results. Army chief General Horta Inta-A declared himself transitional president hours after unrest erupted, compounding instability in a country familiar with repeated political ruptures. The African Union has suspended Guinea-Bissau, citing breaches of democratic norms.
A Broader Pattern Across Africa
Guinea-Bissau joins Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Gabon, and Madagascar, countries that have experienced military takeovers since 2020. Kagame noted that coups often reflect deeper frustrations over governance, economic stagnation, security failures, and contested elections.
He warned that coups rarely occur without warning, adding: “Once there is a coup, maybe ninety percent, it means that there has been a problem,” highlighting governments’ failure to address underlying grievances.
Governance Is Key
While stopping short of endorsing coups, Kagame emphasised that political instability will persist if leaders ignore citizens’ concerns. Even when a leader is removed, structural issues remain unless accompanied by meaningful reforms.
AU Must Act More Firmly
Kagame urged the African Union to take stronger action against elected leaders who manipulate institutions, compromise elections, or erode democratic norms. He argued that while the AU acts decisively against military coups, it is often hesitant to challenge civilian leaders whose actions precipitate crises.
A Veteran Leader’s Perspective
Kagame has led Rwanda since 2000, following his tenure as vice president after the Rwandan Patriotic Front ended the 1994 genocide. He is now serving his fourth term, having secured 98% of the vote in last year’s election, bringing a long-term perspective to his commentary on governance and authority in Africa.