AS conflict intensifies in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame faces renewed accusations of backing the M23 rebel group, which has seized significant territory in eastern DRC. While Kagame denies any involvement, analysts suggest his deep-rooted military and political strategy leaves nothing to chance, reports AFP.
A United Nations panel recently concluded that Rwanda effectively controls M23, with at least 4,000 Rwandan troops allegedly fighting alongside the rebels. The DRC government accuses Rwanda of expansionist ambitions, claiming its forces are plundering the country’s mineral wealth. Despite these allegations, calls for sanctions against Rwanda have gone unanswered, allowing Kagame to maintain his firm stance.
For Kagame, the issue is not just geopolitical but deeply personal. He argues that Hutu extremists, responsible for the 1994 genocide, remain active in eastern DRC, posing a persistent threat to Rwanda’s security. His approach, shaped by decades of military and political manoeuvring, has cemented his reputation as a master strategist in African politics.
A leader forged by conflict
Kagame’s journey to power began long before he became Rwanda’s president. Born into exile in Uganda after the 1959 anti-Tutsi massacres, he spent 34 years as a refugee before rising through the ranks of Yoweri Museveni’s rebel forces in the 1980s. He later co-founded the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF), which toppled the genocidal Hutu government in 1994, ending a massacre that claimed 800,000 lives, mostly Tutsis.
Since then, Kagame has ruled with a firm grip, blending economic modernisation with strict political control. Some hail him as the leader who transformed Rwanda into a model of development, known for its clean governance and ambitious economic projects. Others see him as a ruthless autocrat, intolerant of opposition and dissent.
‘You can’t separate Kagame the politician from Kagame the soldier, the strategist,’ said Onesphore Sematumba of the International Crisis Group (ICG). His government’s unwavering stance on security reflects his belief that even a small extremist threat must be eliminated before it escalates.
Rwanda’s military edge and diplomatic influence
Under Kagame, Rwanda’s military has become the most formidable force in the region, according to the ICG. His unwavering control at home—evident in his 99 percent re-election victory in 2024—ensures he faces little domestic resistance. Kagame has also leveraged international partnerships, securing foreign aid and diplomatic backing while positioning Rwanda as a strategic player in global affairs.
Unlike in 2012, when Rwanda was pressured to withdraw support for M23, Kagame now holds a stronger position on the world stage. His diplomatic influence and military presence in regional peacekeeping missions have bolstered his standing. ‘The Kagame of 2025 is not the same Kagame as in 2012. He is now aware of his importance on the international scene,’ said Sematumba.
Defiant against Western criticism
Despite mounting allegations, Kagame remains defiant. He has repeatedly dismissed Western concerns over Rwanda’s role in DRC, framing the crisis as an existential issue. Speaking to diplomats last month, he rejected outside interference, stating, ‘For you, it’s just something you talk about while playing football or tennis. For me and my people, it’s life and death.’
As tensions with DRC continue to escalate, Kagame’s calculated leadership remains central to Rwanda’s political and military trajectory. His ability to navigate regional conflicts, global diplomacy, and internal control reinforces his role as one of Africa’s most strategic and controversial leaders.
