KENYA’S President William Ruto has announced a joint mediation effort with Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni to defuse escalating tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia. The dispute, centred on Ethiopia’s plans to build a port in Somaliland in exchange for possible recognition of its sovereignty, risks destabilising the region and aggravating existing political rifts.
Somaliland at the centre of conflict
Landlocked Ethiopia, which has deployed thousands of troops to Somalia to combat al-Qaeda-linked al-Shabaab insurgents, is at odds with Mogadishu over Somaliland’s autonomy. The semi-autonomous region declared independence in 1991 and has maintained relative peace and self-governance. However, it remains unrecognised internationally, a status Ethiopia is seemingly leveraging in its pursuit of a port agreement.
Somalia has responded by forging closer ties with Egypt and Eritrea, both historical adversaries of Ethiopia. Egypt’s long-standing opposition to Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Nile adds another layer of complexity to this regional power play.
A call for regional stability
President Ruto emphasised the broader implications of resolving the conflict, stating that regional stability is essential for fostering economic growth and attracting investment.
‘The security of Somalia contributes significantly to the stability of our region and creates an environment where investors, businesspeople, and entrepreneurs can thrive,’ Ruto said during a press briefing.
Efforts to mediate the dispute have so far made little headway. Ruto and Museveni’s initiative aims to prevent further fallout that could destabilise an already fragile Horn of Africa.
Geopolitical ramifications
The Ethiopia-Somalia rift has broader geopolitical consequences. Ethiopia’s engagement with Somaliland threatens to deepen Somalia’s alignment with Egypt, creating a bloc of opposition to Addis Ababa’s ambitions. Meanwhile, Eritrea, another Ethiopian rival, could leverage the situation to assert influence in the region.
Diplomatic sources suggest that Ethiopia’s port plans in Somaliland could signal a shift in its regional strategy, potentially leaving Somalia further isolated. Meanwhile, Somaliland, eager for recognition, views Ethiopia’s proposal as a rare opportunity to bolster its status on the global stage.
What lies ahead?
While Ethiopia and Somalia have yet to comment on the proposed mediation, analysts warn that any delay in resolving the dispute could escalate tensions. Ruto and Museveni’s intervention highlights the urgent need for dialogue and compromise to prevent a regional crisis.
The Horn of Africa’s stability depends on collaboration and the resolution of disputes like this one. As Ruto and Museveni step up their mediation efforts, the world will watch closely to see if peace and pragmatism prevail over division and conflict.
