NAMIBIANS head to the polls on Wednesday for what could be the most competitive election in the country’s post-independence history, with the ruling SWAPO party facing significant challenges to its 34-year rule. At stake is the presidency, with SWAPO candidate Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah vying to become Namibia’s first female president, marking a historic moment. A potential SWAPO loss would signify a monumental shift in power, as it would be the first time since Namibia’s independence in 1990 that the ruling party has been ousted.
The 2024 election comes at a time when the SWAPO party’s popularity has significantly waned. Once a dominant force in Namibian politics, its support fell to just 56 percent in the 2019 presidential elections, down from 87 percent in 2014. This erosion of trust is largely attributed to ongoing issues like high unemployment, rampant corruption, and stark economic inequality, with many citizens dissatisfied with the government’s handling of critical national challenges.
The opposition is galvanised by Panduleni Itula, a former dentist turned politician, who leads the Independent Patriots for Change (IPC). Itula, who split from SWAPO in 2019, garnered 29 percent of the vote in the last election and is widely seen as the frontrunner this time. His party now represents a strong alternative to the long-standing SWAPO regime, attracting voters particularly from Namibia’s youth demographic, which comprises more than half of the electorate.
University of Namibia lecturer Rui Tyitende emphasised that this election could be pivotal, with the turnout of young voters potentially making the difference. These voters, often disillusioned by high unemployment rates and poverty, are more likely to support opposition parties. ‘If young voters do not show up, SWAPO may secure a victory. But if they turn out in numbers, it could shift the balance,’ Tyitende explained.
Namibia, though classified as an upper-middle-income country, still suffers from high levels of inequality and poverty, with 43 percent of its population living in multidimensional poverty according to a 2021 government report. The country also ranks as the second most unequal in the world, following South Africa. This economic landscape has created widespread discontent, particularly among younger generations who feel left behind by SWAPO’s leadership.
The SWAPO party, which led Namibia to independence from apartheid South Africa, is facing increasing scrutiny over corruption scandals, despite Nandi-Ndaitwah’s clean record. The most notable of these is the ‘fishrot’ scandal, which involves former government ministers accused of bribery in connection with fishing industry deals. While Nandi-Ndaitwah is not implicated in the scandal, the ongoing trials of two former ministers have tarnished the party’s reputation.
Political analysts have drawn parallels between SWAPO’s struggles and the fate of other southern African independence-era parties, such as South Africa’s African National Congress (ANC) and Botswana’s Botswana Democratic Party (BDP), both of which recently lost their long-standing grips on power. This trend reflects a wider regional shift, with younger voters less swayed by historical legacies of liberation struggles and more focused on tangible issues like economic development and job creation.
Despite these challenges, SWAPO remains a formidable force, especially in rural areas, where its deep-rooted connections and legacy from the anti-apartheid struggle continue to resonate with some voters. The party’s extensive infrastructure and established machinery make it a strong contender, although it now faces a deeply divided electorate.
In the event of a SWAPO defeat, Namibia would experience its first transition of power since independence—an outcome that could bring about significant political change. For now, the country’s fate is uncertain, with the outcome of the election hinging on how the electorate responds to the promise of a new political direction versus the stability offered by SWAPO’s decades-long rule.
Observers have described past Namibian elections as free and fair, and there is hope that the 2024 election will continue this trend, providing the nation with a fair opportunity to choose its next leader.
As the polls approach, the stakes could not be higher for Namibia’s future. The election not only tests the survival of SWAPO’s dominance but also marks a turning point in the country’s political evolution, as a new generation of voters demands change.
