There’s a quiet but steady comeback happening in Nigeria’s economy, and the numbers are beginning to show it. Business confidence has hit its highest point in six months, as key sectors like manufacturing and ICT lead the charge toward recovery.
According to economic analyst and CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Dr. Muda Yusuf, the country is bouncing back from the early shocks of President Tinubu’s economic reforms. If current trends hold steady, Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) could hit $450 billion by the end of 2025.
In a statement shared with The Guardian, Yusuf explained that the country’s GDP for 2024 stood at ₦372.82 trillion—a 41% jump compared to 2019. For Q1 2025, total output was ₦94 trillion, slightly slower than the previous quarter, bringing the cumulative GDP to roughly ₦466 trillion or $300 billion.
He noted that first quarters are usually slower, but added that this year’s figures still reflect resilience across many sectors. Yet, not all sectors are moving at the same pace. Agriculture and manufacturing, for example, recorded sluggish growth at 0.7% and 1.7% respectively, far below expectations for sectors meant to create jobs, fight poverty, and boost economic inclusion.
A closer look shows that 37 sectors grew, albeit modestly, while nine contracted and three fell into recession—including air transport, textiles, and coal mining, which have seen repeated declines over several quarters.
On the brighter side, some sectors posted impressive growth. Financial services rose by 15.3%, transportation by 14.08%, oil refining by 11.51%, and ICT by 7.4%. Metal ores, interestingly, recorded a massive 25% jump.
Trade, crop production, real estate, construction, food and beverage, petroleum and gas, and financial institutions were listed as the biggest GDP contributors.
Business confidence also received a significant boost in June 2025, as shown in the latest NESG-Stanbic IBTC Business Confidence Monitor (BCM). The Current Business Performance Index climbed from 109.8 points in May to 113.6 points, staying well above the 100-point mark that separates growth from contraction. Even better, the Business Confidence Measure—which reflects expectations for the future—hit 134.5 points, its highest level all year.
Among all sectors, manufacturing stood out, with its index jumping from 114.4 in May to 123.6 in June. Industries like cement, paper, plastics, rubber, and wood products led the pack, with firms reporting better production output and stronger supply chain performance.
However, these gains haven’t come easy. Manufacturers are still facing high production costs, foreign exchange instability, and unreliable power supply. Soaring diesel prices and naira depreciation are also squeezing margins, alongside issues like raw material shortages, import tariffs, insecurity, and multiple taxes.
Meanwhile, the non-manufacturing sector held a positive index of 120.7, but June marked the second straight monthly decline. Service-based businesses are feeling the heat from rising energy prices, poor infrastructure, and increased transport costs—all of which are eating into profits.
Access to finance remains one of the biggest hurdles across all sectors, especially for small and medium-sized businesses. Other challenges include confusing economic policies and high property rents.
Despite the storm clouds, Nigeria’s business sector is showing signs of real grit. As Yusuf put it, it’s time for targeted interventions—especially in agriculture, trade, and manufacturing—if the economy is to build on this momentum and deliver inclusive, long-term growth.
