UNDER President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Nigeria is experiencing a pivotal moment. With a sweeping range of reforms designed to stabilise the economy, boost social services, and empower local governance, his administration is tackling long-standing structural issues head-on. But what if these bold measures had been introduced not in 2023, but back in 1999—when Nigeria first returned to democratic rule?
This thought experiment offers important lessons. Looking through the lens of hindsight, it becomes clear that early adoption of President Tinubu’s key reforms—fuel subsidy removal, naira liberalisation, local government autonomy, and youth-centred educational policies—could have dramatically altered Nigeria’s social and economic trajectory.
What if Tinubu’s policies began in 1999?
1999 marked the end of military rule and the beginning of the Fourth Republic. Nigeria had a unique opportunity to define a new economic path rooted in accountability and long-term development. However, many of the administrations that followed were constrained by populist policies, a heavy reliance on oil revenues, and an aversion to politically difficult but necessary reforms.
President Tinubu’s approach differs sharply. His willingness to implement difficult economic measures, such as scrapping fuel subsidies and unifying exchange rates, demonstrates a long-term vision. Had these policies been introduced in 1999, Nigeria might today be an economic powerhouse in Africa, with stronger institutions, higher foreign direct investment, and a much more competitive economy.
Fuel subsidy and naira reforms: missed early opportunities
Fuel subsidies have long been a political tool, often maintained at the cost of economic prudence. Over the years, trillions of naira were spent subsidising fuel—funds that could have supported infrastructure, education, and healthcare. Tinubu’s immediate removal of the subsidy in 2023, though painful for consumers, marked a return to rational economics.
Similarly, the decision to unify the exchange rate of the naira, ending the multiple-window system, has improved transparency and strengthened investor confidence. If these measures had taken root at the dawn of the Fourth Republic, Nigeria’s macroeconomic environment would likely be far more robust today. Corruption linked to arbitrage in the forex system would have been curtailed earlier, and the country’s competitiveness in trade and investment would be well ahead of current levels.
Student loans and local autonomy as game-changers
Another major stride under Tinubu is the introduction of interest-free student loans—an initiative that, if maintained, could revolutionise access to education. This move directly tackles the economic barrier that has excluded many bright minds from Nigeria’s universities and polytechnics.
If such a programme had been introduced two decades ago, Nigeria would likely have a much larger pool of skilled professionals, researchers, and entrepreneurs driving innovation and development. A better-educated population also fuels democratic awareness and civic participation, two areas where Nigeria continues to struggle.
Equally transformative is the emphasis on local government autonomy. Over-centralisation has historically paralysed development at the grassroots level. Giving local governments real autonomy and direct access to funds could drastically improve public services and foster responsive governance. Imagine how vibrant our local economies could be today had this system matured over the last 25 years.
Redirecting funds to build a stronger society
Redirecting the funds saved from subsidies to public services such as healthcare, roads, education, and clean water systems is the hallmark of responsible governance. For decades, Nigeria’s budget has been skewed towards consumption, not development.
Tinubu’s approach changes that. He is betting on long-term impact over short-term popularity. If these funds are transparently and efficiently deployed, the benefits will be felt across generations. But transparency is non-negotiable. Reforms without accountability risk repeating old mistakes.
In the early 2000s, Nigeria’s infrastructural deficits were manageable. A sustained programme of strategic investment in those years could have resulted in world-class road networks, stable electricity, and fully equipped hospitals and schools by now. The cost of inaction has been staggering.
Citizens’ role in advancing Tinubu’s vision
Reform is not a one-way street. Citizens must also evolve in their civic roles. From holding leaders accountable to participating in public dialogue, the Nigerian electorate has the power to ensure the success of Tinubu’s initiatives.
Active community involvement—whether by attending town hall meetings, joining policy advocacy groups, mentoring youths, or supporting educational initiatives—will be critical. It is through this bottom-up approach that reforms are truly localised and meaningful.
Staying informed is essential. When people understand their rights, the purpose of policies, and the mechanisms for change, it creates a culture of engaged citizenship and mutual accountability.
Digital engagement and the 2027 elections
As Nigeria prepares for the 2027 elections, the digital landscape will play an increasingly decisive role. Social media platforms, digital campaigns, and online civic forums are redefining how citizens engage with politics.
Used responsibly, these platforms can educate voters, mobilise young people, and amplify policy impact. But if left unchecked, they can become breeding grounds for misinformation and division. Tinubu’s administration must harness this digital potential not just for campaigning, but for real-time governance feedback and civic education.
Fighting misinformation for democratic resilience
In an era of viral lies and manipulated narratives, combating misinformation is as crucial as any infrastructure project. Strategies must go beyond fact-checking. Media literacy needs to be embedded in our education system, starting from primary school.
Public institutions must proactively communicate policy changes in simple, localised language. Prebunking—anticipating and addressing falsehoods before they spread—should become a standard feature of public communication.
Community radio, influencers, teachers, and faith leaders can serve as trusted messengers. This is how we build a democracy that not only resists disinformation but thrives on truth.
Tinubu’s path to electoral success in 2027
With 2027 looming, President Tinubu’s political capital hinges not just on intentions, but results. Nigerians want to see change they can feel—cheaper food, better jobs, safer streets, and functioning hospitals.
To that end, his government must double down on delivery. Every kilometre of road fixed, every school reopened, every farmer supported, every young person educated—these are the metrics that will define Tinubu’s legacy.
Policy implementation must also prioritise inclusivity. Every region, every demographic must benefit. When citizens see themselves in the national narrative, they respond with support—and votes.
The future we could have had, and still can
Had Tinubu’s reforms been in place since 1999, Nigeria might be unrecognisable today—for the better. But the past cannot be rewritten. What can be changed is the future.
This is a moment of opportunity. The right policies are on the table. Now is the time for focus, execution, and unity of purpose.
By staying the course, promoting transparency, empowering communities, and investing in people, Nigeria can still fulfil the promise of 1999—not as a missed chance, but as a foundation for a new era of growth, stability, and dignity for all.
