Nigeria’s crude oil production, excluding condensates, slipped slightly to 1.486 million barrels per day (bpd) in November, down from 1.496 million bpd recorded in October 2025, according to the latest Monthly Oil Market Report released by OPEC. The Organisation clarified that condensate volumes—about 196,028 bpd as reported by the NUPRC—are not included in its assessment.
OPEC noted that the November figures were derived from secondary sources and indicated that Nigeria again fell short of its assigned 1.5 million bpd quota. However, using data obtained directly from Nigerian authorities, the Organisation reported an output of 1.436 million bpd for November, up from 1.401 million bpd in October.
Despite the slight month-to-month drop, November’s 1.486 million bpd reflects a marginal increase from the 1.417 million bpd produced during the same period in 2024. But experts argue that Nigeria’s persistent struggle to meet its quota stems from long-standing industry constraints.
Speaking to Vanguard, Professor Emeritus of Petroleum Economics, Wumi Iledare, said the modest decline was expected. He attributed the country’s output challenges to insecurity, an ageing oil basin, limited new discoveries, and the absence of fresh licensing rounds. He also pointed to governance lapses and policy inconsistency as major barriers to investor confidence.
He stressed the need for decisive leadership in the sector, noting that fragmented oversight has weakened progress. “The selective implementation of the PIA must stop,” he said. “Too many proxy drivers will not work. I can’t recall the last time Nigeria met its OPEC quota.”
Meanwhile, the NUPRC has projected an ambitious production target of over 2.5 million bpd in the coming years. The Commission’s Chief Executive, Engr. Gbenga Komolafe, highlighted key achievements since its inception in 2021, including a significant rise in active rig count—from 16 in 2021 to 40 as of 2025—reflecting renewed operational activity across the sector.
