SOMALILAND’S quest for international recognition continues to garner attention from regional and global powers, reflecting the intricate balance of strategic interests and sovereignty aspirations. Recent discussions in the UK’s House of Lords and remarks from former UK Defence Secretary Gavin Williamson highlight the geopolitical stakes surrounding Somaliland’s sovereignty, including its strategic position and democratic credentials.
Historical and strategic context
Somaliland declared independence in 1991 amid Somalia’s descent into civil war. In the years since, it has established functional democratic institutions, holding multiple free elections. Most recently, opposition leader Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi of the Waddani Party defeated the incumbent in elections widely praised for their transparency. This stability contrasts sharply with Somalia’s ongoing struggles with insecurity, particularly threats from the Al-Shabaab militia.
Strategically, Somaliland’s location along the Red Sea and its Berbera Port are critical to regional and international trade. The port supports Ethiopian and UAE commerce, with additional potential to serve as a strategic outpost for Western nations, including the US and the UK, as well as Israel. Despite its stability and strategic importance, Somaliland remains unrecognised, largely due to African Union (AU) policies on territorial integrity and concerns about destabilising Somalia.
UK’s renewed interest
In the UK, the Somaliland debate resurfaced in the House of Lords in October 2024. Members cited Somaliland’s historical ties as a former British protectorate and the significant Somali diaspora in Britain. Advocates for recognition praised Somaliland’s democratic governance and stability, urging closer cooperation. However, concerns about the AU’s stance on borders and the potential ripple effects on Somalia’s fragile statehood were also discussed.
The UK’s interest aligns with broader international trends, particularly in maritime security and trade logistics. With Somaliland located near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a critical chokepoint for global shipping, its stability is crucial for regional security.
US perspectives and Trump’s potential role
Former UK Defence Secretary Gavin Williamson suggested that Somaliland’s recognition might gain traction under a potential Trump administration. This echoes Trump’s earlier unorthodox approaches to international diplomacy, such as recognising Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. For the US, recognising Somaliland could serve broader strategic goals, such as countering Iranian and Houthi influence near the Red Sea and strengthening partnerships in the Horn of Africa alongside Ethiopia and the UAE.
Implications of recognition
Recognition of Somaliland would carry profound regional implications. Ethiopia could benefit by reducing its reliance on Djibouti for trade, leveraging Berbera Port to diversify its logistics network. However, fears remain that recognition might embolden other separatist movements within Somalia, such as Puntland, destabilising the region.
Internationally, opposition from key players like Turkey and China, both of whom maintain strong ties with Somalia, could complicate recognition efforts. Additionally, unresolved clan tensions and border disputes within Somaliland pose potential risks to its stability, even if recognition is achieved.
Opportunities and risks for businesses
From a business perspective, recognising Somaliland presents opportunities and risks. Enhanced trade and improved logistics along the Red Sea corridor could boost regional commerce. Infrastructure investments, particularly in maritime security and port development, might attract foreign capital. However, these benefits must be weighed against the potential for heightened regional tensions and disruption to existing trade routes.
The debate over Somaliland’s sovereignty underscores the complex interplay of national pride, geopolitical strategy, and economic interests. While the region’s stability and democratic governance make a strong case for recognition, unresolved challenges demand a nuanced, diplomatic approach. For stakeholders in the Horn of Africa, careful analysis of the evolving geopolitical landscape is essential to navigate both the opportunities and risks ahead.
Agnes Gitau is an international development professional working at the intersection of institutions, policy, and politics to advance economic development. She focuses on ESG, sustainable financing, African regional trade development, and financial and digital inclusion
