Speech Delivered By Clem Ikanade Agba On The Occassion To Mark The Independent Television/Radio NUJ Press Week 2021 Ans Award At Glorious Garden Events Centre, GRA Benin City On The Topic ”The Medium Term National Development Plan (MTNDP) 2021-2025 And The Place Of Common Man”.

SPEECH PRESENTED

BY

PRINCE CLEM IKANADE AGBA

HONOURABLE MINISTER OF STATE FOR BUDGET AND NATIONAL PLANNING

PROTOCOL

It is my pleasure to address you on this occasion of the Independent Television Radio NUJ Press Week 2021 and Award ceremony.

2. The Nigeria Union of Journalists and its various chapters have always been in the forefront for the growth and development of our Country. Your role as the fourth estate of the realm have been very supportive and highly appreciated especially as you educate, entertain, criticise, and spur government and citizens into actions. This is aside from your historical role in the struggle for the independence of Nigeria on formation (15th of March, 1955 in Lagos). You struggled with other groups such as Nigerian Youth Movement, a platform for the nationalists, trade unions and professional groups for the betterment of our country.
3. Your chapter is particularly striking because your organization is among the first set of privately owned television and radio station that have survived and still standing tall since formation in March 27th, 1997 when it started transmission of programmes on Channel 22 with its slogan, “Certainly the Best”. The station radically changed the horizon of broadcasting in Nigeria. It was a local Station but with a new vision to expand the frontiers of broadcasting in the new millennium, the concretization of Chief Igbinedion’s dream culminated in the approval and subsequent presentation of a license by the former Head of State General Ibrahim Babangida on 26th June 1993, at the Ladi Kwali Hall of Sheraton Hotels and Towers Abuja. It goes down in history that Independent Television was the first private owned broadcasting station in Nigeria to be presented its license on that memorable day. It is gratifying to note that ITV now has a worldwide presence on satellite.
4. My address which is “ The Medium Term National Development Plan 2021-2025 and the place of the Common Man will focus on six broad areas namely (i) Why development planning (ii) Past developments Plans (iii) insight into the new National Development Plan, 2021-2025 (iv) other opportunities in Nigeria (v) COVID-19 and Current Economic Performance.

Why Development Planning

5. Development Planning is generally used to accelerate economic growth, create jobs, reduce inequality and eradicate absolute poverty. Planning is the strategy for the allocation/utilization of scarce resources to improve the standard of living of the citizens. It therefore entails the prioritization of scares resources in order to meet desired ends. It helps to increase the rate of economic development through capital formation which results from raising income, saving and investment levels. Planning also helps to strengthen market mechanism by removing market imperfections, determining the amount and composition of investment and overcoming structural rigidities in the economy.

Past Development Plans and Lessons learned

6. The first attempt at development planning in Nigeria was the pre independence ten-year plan of development and welfare for Nigerians between 1946 and 1956 which was done by the colonial masters. Some of the drawbacks to this pre-independence plans include limited financial resources; weaknesses in the public policy making process, lack of mass participation, non involvement of Nigerians among others.
7. Since independence, Nigeria had adopted and applied four national development plans; namely: the First National Development Plan (1962 – 1968); the Second National Development Plan (1970 – 1974); the Third National Development Plan (1975 –1980) and the Fourth National Development Plan (1981 –1985), the Fifth National Development plan did not see the light of the day before it was replaced by a new perspective plans (1986 – 1994). This new planning model provide an opportunity for a realistic long- term view of the problem of the economy. It involved a series of Integrated Development Initiatives under the Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP). Some of the initiatives included rural development strategies such as Agricultural Development Scheme; National Accelerated Food Production Programme (NAFPP); and Directorate for Food, Road and Rural Infrastructure (DFRRI).
8. After SAP, Nigeria resorted to the use of (ad-hoc) short-term instruments for economic management i.e. the era of Rolling Plans (1990-1999). A rolling plan takes into account new information, improved data and analysis, and incorporates periodic revision into the planning machinery. Each revision takes a look at the future which is determined by the nature of factual circumstances.
9. The more recent plans include:

• The National Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy (NEEDS), which built on the Interim Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (IPRSP) between 2001 and 2003, and incorporated the State Economic Empowerment and Development Strategies (SEEDS) and Local Economic Empowerment and Development Strategies (LEEDS)
• Nigeria Vision 20:2020 (NV 20:2020) and the 1st medium-term national implementation plans (NIPs)
• The Transformation Agenda (2011 – 2015)
• The Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP, 2017-2020)

10. A review of the more recent plan (ERGP) showed that historic terms of trade shock exacerbated by reduced oil production and policy constraints took a major toll on the Nigerian economy ahead of the design and implementation of the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP). The ERGP, a Medium-Term Plan for 2017-2020 was developed to restore economic growth and achieve a more diversified and inclusive economy. Growth performance, while below the ERGP’s targets was broadly in the right direction with twelve quarters of consecutive GDP growth through 2017-2019.

Insight into the new National Development Plan 2021-2025)

11. I like to note that the process for the preparation of the National Development Plan (2021 – 2025) and the proposed Nigeria Agenda 2050, recently approved by the Federal Executive Council (FEC), was inclusive and participatory involving all critical stakeholders.
12. Also some of the considerations and pre work in the development of the new plan includes lessons learnt from previous National Development Plans, analysis of binding constraints and negative feedback loops, impact of global and regional megatrends among others.

Lessons Learnt From Previous National Development Plans

13. Some of the lessons learnt in the implementation of past National Development Plans include:

• Need to recognize the hierarchical relationship among a perspective plan, medium-term plan and the annual budget and hence adopt the perspective plan as the framework of the medium-term plan. This requires ensuring a proper linkage of the annual budget to this Plan during implementation.
• Need to adhere to a centralized plan implementation coordination mechanism (i.e. avoid multiplicity of coordinators)
• Need to adequately engage stakeholders and beneficiaries in the formulation and implementation of development plans and programmes through the adoption of a bottom-up approach.
• Need to develop the commitment and political will to implement plans in an effective and efficient manner, as poor implementation has been the bane in achieving plan outcomes in Nigeria.
• Effective monitoring and evaluation of plans can aid plan discipline and implementation. There is the need for agencies contributing inputs into the M & E system to ensure proper coordination.
• In order to ensure a proper linkage of the plan to budgets and expenditure frameworks, there is a need for appropriate legislative backing. It will help to curb plan indiscipline and distortions in the course of plan implementation.
• Need for continuity, consistency and commitment to agreed policies, programmes and projects in order to enhance plan outcomes as well as avoid implementation of multiple competing plans.

Binding Constraints and Negative Feedback Loops

14. Some key binding constraints and negative feedback loops were identified and government’s priority in this plan is to eliminate these binding constraints. These constraints are:

• MEGA TRENDS: Middle-East War, Oil Price Spikes, COVID-19
• REGULATORY FAILURES (OPACITY): Excessive discretion on the part of regulators, Multiple taxation
• MACRO RISK: Lack of clarity in exchange rates and FX regime, Inability of investors to repatriate their profits
• INFRASTRUCTURE: Power, water, rail , communication etc.
• INTANGIBLE: Policy flip flops, Import substitution, sudden land border lock-downs, Security, Institutional capture
• OTHERS: Lack of collective know how or low complexity of production

Impact of global and regional megatrends

15. The guiding context to the plan included global and regional megatrends. Global and regional events affect economic and social developments in Nigeria. These megatrends present opportunities to accelerate growth and Nigeria has to take advantage of the trends. Five megatrends were taken into special consideration in the design of the Plan:

• the fourth industrial revolution,
• regional trade,
• green economy,
• knowledge economy and
• demographic shifts.

16. It is also important to note that application of the concept of Futurology was used in the preparation of the Plans. Futurology/ futurism is not only about postulating possible probable and preferable futures only, but also about creating the future we desire.  This implies shaping and moulding the future into an image we would prefer which should not be limited by the prism of the present or by whatever may be in fashion at any moment. Next is the product space mapping/Product complexity to achieve the various alternatives and identification of the key bottlenecks that needs to be solved.

Institutional Arrangement

17. In the preparation of MTNDP (2021 -2025) and Agenda 2050, the governance structure has three levels with Technical Working Groups [TWGs] as the base where all technical works was carried out before escalation to the Central Working Group [CWG] which has oversight functions on the TWGs. At the top is the Steering Committee which has oversight on all the planning process. This is Co-Chaired by Mr. Atedo Peterside and  Dr. [Mrs.] Zainab S. Ahmed [Hon. Minister of Finance, Budget and National Planning].  To truly reflect national outlook, the Steering Committee also has members drawn from the various segments of the society including six Governors from the six geo-political zones, President of umbrella Youth Organizations, two leaders of NASS Committee on National Planning, representatives of the two major religious organizations, President National Council of Women Society etc.

Overview of National Development Plan (NDP) 2021 – 2025

18. The National Development Plan (NDP) 2021 – 2025 and Nigeria Agenda 2050 are Nigeria’s home-grown Medium and Long-term National Development Plans developed to succeed the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan [ERGP 2017 – 2020] and Nigeria Vision 2020 [NV20:2020] which both ended in December 2020.

THE PLAN VISION:

To make Nigeria a Country that has unlocked it’s potential in all sectors of the economy for a Sustainable, Holistic and Inclusive National Development

The overall plan targets of NDP 2021 – 2025 are:

• A broad-based economic growth of about 5% on the average
• Employment generation – projected to increase by about 21 million full time jobs
• Number of people to be lifted out of poverty projected at 35 million. Thus setting the stage for achieving the government’s commitment of lifting 100 million Nigerians out of poverty in 10 years.
• National government net revenue at all levels expected to increase to 15 percent of GDP by 2025

The Plan seeks to achieve these laudable goals in the medium term by expanding economic growth, growing an inclusive economy, leveraging its young workforce and enhancing execution capacity at the national and sub-national levels.

Objectives

19. The associated broad objectives of the Plan are to:

• Establish a strong foundation for a Concentric diversified economy, with robust MSME growth, and a more-resilient business environment,
• To invest in critical physical, financial, digital, and innovation infrastructure, build a solid framework and enhancing capacities to strengthen security and ensure good governance, and
• To enable a vibrant, educated, and healthy population.
• These objectives are underpinned by two broad sets of cross-cutting enablers:
• Investing in the social infrastructure and services required to alleviate poverty, and
• Promoting development opportunities across States to minimize regional economic and social disparities.

20. To achieve the above, the guiding philosophy of government is that National development is the highest priority of government. Government will unlock all constraints to ensure that economic growth is enhanced, inclusive and sustainable over the plan period and beyond to generate employment and reduce poverty by the year 2050. The role of the government will go beyond the normal provision of the enabling environment, it will include the qualitative participation in vital sectors of the economy, that will open opportunities for the private sector to be a major engine of growth. Consequently, the philosophy of the government is to work with all stakeholders within and outside the country for the structural transformation of the economy in order to guarantee continuous improvement in the welfare and standard of living of all citizens by the year 2050.
21. The NDP 2021 – 2025 envisions Nigeria being a leading industrializing and reforming nation in Africa, that will focus on building its institutional capacity and capability, as well as, fostering a private sector-led growth to help address the critical issues of jobs, wealth creation and poverty reduction. Nigeria is improving on its investment climate and business environment. The country is now moving decisively towards the reforms required to unlock local content development, sub-national economic diversification, competitiveness and growth, making moderate, incremental progress in poverty reduction and job creation in the medium-term.
22. The National Development Plan is structured around seven cluster areas that underpin the lever of our economic growth and development as follows:
23. Economic growth and development
24. Public administration

• Human capital development

1. Social development
2. Regional development
3. Plan Implementation, Communication, Financing, Monitoring and Evaluation
4. The new financing approach envisaged by the Plan includes pursuing Concentric economic diversification, broadening the tax base, creating investment opportunities through appropriate incentives to the private sector, establishing funding vehicles such as growth funds, securitization and public private partnerships, (PPP). Additionally, there will be a focus on fiscal discipline through drastic reduction in waste in overall governance, especially government transactions. The Strategic Revenue Growth Initiative (SRGI) and the Annual Finance Act are additional strategies put in place to address revenue challenges of government.

Critical Policy Priorities and Strategies

24. To achieve the stated objectives, the Plan revolves around the need to optimise the structure and potential of the Nigerian economy towards a sustained and inclusive growth, driven by increased productivity and macroeconomic stability. Policy actions will be generally directed towards the following:

• Prioritization and implementation of critical and strategic infrastructure projects that will directly raise production and productivity in the MSMEs, agriculture, manufacturing and service sectors, in line with rapid growth, revenue and foreign exchange diversification objectives. The focus would be on electricity, road/rail and other transport, and broadband internet connectivity.
• Continued supportive market-driven interventions for manufacturing, agriculture and MSME subsectors to encourage broader diversification efforts.
• Enhancement of non-oil foreign exchange earnings by attracting FDI, improving diaspora remittances, raising productivity and promoting non-oil exports.
• Adoption of measures to diversify revenue and increase tax to GDP ratio by improving tax administration, integrating the informal sector, and widening the tax base.
• Reformation of the subsidy regimes for more fiscal space to fund priority economic and social programmes
• A unified and efficient foreign exchange market.
• Institutional reforms and measures to create a conducive environment for private economic activity,
• Prioritization of quality education, health, research and technological capacity building.
• Institutional reformation of economic sectors, public sector, law enforcement, judiciary, and secure property rights, including intellectual property.
• Implementation of social protection for the most vulnerable, backed by an effective M&E framework and impact assessment methods.
• A multi-pronged and multi-tiered approach to address the country’s security threats and challenges.
• Institutional reforms and measures to ensure a market driven economy.
• Strengthen coordinating mechanism for plan implementation.

25. In addition to a robust implementation framework and financing structure there are other new mechanisms and programmes that differentiates this plan from our previous national development plan such as:

• A mechanism to Engage, Empower and Employ our teaming energetic youths
• Inclusiveness- Opportunities for young people, women, People with Special Needs, the Vulnerable etc mainstreamed in all aspect of social, economic and political activities
• Sports as a business
• Integrated rural development and Subnational governments cooperation and collaboration
• A comprehensive plan with Volume II and III. Volume II contains Prioritised and Sequenced list of Programmes and Projects to feed into Annual Budgets, while Volume III contains recommendations for legislative and policy imperatives with detail communication plan

26. Ladies and Gentlemen, as we addressed our minds to developing an inclusive and participatory national Plans, we did not lose sight of the important role Nigeria plays in the global economy. The plans, as a matter of conscious effort, is comprehensive and have the capacity to accelerate the attainment of various regional and global Agendas, including the AU Agenda 2063, ECOWAS integration Agenda and the Sustainable Development Goals 2030.

Other opportunities in Nigeria

27. In spite of the COVID-19 challenges, Nigeria is the largest economy and most populous country in Africa with an estimated population of more than 200 million, which is expected to grow to 411 million by 2050 and become the third most populous country in the world after China and India. The country’s middle class of roughly 50 million people is expected to help grow the country into one of the top-twenty global economies by 2050. These statistics show that Nigeria has enormous potentials and opportunities waiting to be exploited.
28. Let me reassure you, once more, that the administration of His Excellency, President Muhammadu Buhari is interested in attracting and supporting foreign direct investments and partnerships in Nigeria. The government is creating an enabling and stable macroeconomic environment by eliminating barriers and putting in place many incentives to attract investments. In addition to incentives in the Economic Sustainability Plan (ESP), we have, implemented some reforms for good governance and transparency. The Treasury Single Account (TSA), Tax Reform, Development of Anti-Corruption Strategy 2017 – 2021, the roll out of Integrated Payroll and Personnel information system (IPPIS), Government Integrated Financial and Management Information System (GIFMIS) implementation and the Presidential Initiative on Ease of Doing Business among others.

COVID-19 and Current Economic Performance

29. Distinguish Men of Press, in 2020, the economy was hit by triple shocks of the COVID-19 pandemic, lower oil prices and social conflicts. However, through effective implementation of Economic Sustainability Plan of N2.3 trillion to cushion the effect of the pandemic the ensuring recession was V shaped as the economy quickly rebound from the -6.10% decline recorded in Q2 2020 to growth. The measures and incentives included fiscal and monetary policies, assistance to the health sector and the economy, Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) credit intervention facilities and temporary regulatory forbearance measures to ease debt service.
30. It may also interest you to know that the various measures and incentives put in place by this Government have ensured that both health and economic data have continued to be on the positive trajectory going forward. Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 5.01% (year-on-year) in real terms in the 2nd quarter and 4.03% in 3rd quarter of 2021. The Q2 and Q3 2021 growth rates were higher than the -6.10% decline recorded in Q2 2020 and the 0.51% growth recorded in Q1 2021 year-on-year, indicating the return of business and economic activity near levels seen prior to the nationwide implementation of COVID-19-related restrictions. Similarly, headline inflation has continued to trend downward for the seventh consecutive month from 18.17% in March 2021 to 15.99% in October 2021. Food inflation has also continued to go down in the last seven months after peaking in March 2021 at 22.95%, to 18.34% in October 2021. Preceding this decline, both headline and food inflations continuously rose for seventeen months from October 2019 to March 2021.
31. Plan Implementation

The success of this Plan will depend, to a large extent, on the establishment of a strong implementation mechanism and framework that promotes performance and accountability. The requisite mechanism and framework for the implementation of the government’s activities will encompass robust coordination by the Planning arm of the Ministry of Finance, Budget and National Planning. To this end, the Budget and Planning Arm will be strengthened and enhanced to ensure continuity and professionalism in plan development, budgeting and execution. The Ministry also has the National Monitoring and Evaluation function and will coordinate with the state governments on the plan execution to involve data, monitoring and evaluation. This will require enhanced capacity for effective oversight, tracking and funding.

To this end, a Development Plan Implementation unit (PIU) that reports to NSC headed by the VP, with the HM/HMS Budget and National Planning as Vice Chair, will be established in the Budget and Planning Arm to promote overall coordination with the MDAs, private sector operators, CSOs, amongst others. The National M&E framework will be fully operationalized and Coordinated by the Budget and Planning Arm, for deliberate alignment of the National Budget with the Plan and deployment of technologies to drive a result-based implementation of the Plan in the country. It will equally focus on strengthening the national M&E system to ensure that reliable, timely statistics are generated for the assessment of the implementation of government policies and programmes.

The implementation framework will be supported by a financing strategy, a strengthened national economic management, citizen engagement and legislative changes. National economic management will be strengthened through the coordination of monetary, fiscal, trade, technology and industrial policies in a manner that recognizes and resolves any trade-offs or indeed, tensions, across these policies to maintain macroeconomic stability and the optimal growth trajectory. The government will also seek to develop an efficient communication strategy to create awareness among the stakeholders and their engagement in the implementation.

32. Distinguished ladies and gentlemen, in rounding off my address, I would like to draw your attention to the importance the current administration places on citizens’ participation in governance, tracking service delivery and development in their communities. In order to ensure transparency and accountability in the delivery of government’s capital projects countrywide, the Ministry of Budget and National Planning is working on a Web App -the EYE MARK- that will assist citizens to “eye mark” and report on government’s projects and programmes “earmarked” for their communities using their mobile phones and in “real time”.
33. The Eye Mark app will soon be launched as it is about 90 per cent completed. This government requires your active participation in the process of tying budget provisions to projects and getting time value of money earmarked for capital projects, as “governance is a collective responsibility by all citizens.”
35. The steps taken were geared towards ensuring that our approach to leadership is inclusive and participatory and that We Walk the Talk.
36. Finally, I remain open to receiving ideas on how to improve governance, budgeting, and public participation in governance. I encourage us all to remain engaged with the government. The process may seem slow but there is clear progress. As partners in progress, let us continue to encourage one another by playing our respective roles.
37. Thank you all for your kind attention.