Global oil prices climbed again on Thursday as hopes of a quick diplomatic breakthrough between the United States and Iran faded, with Tehran dismissing Washington’s proposed peace framework as one-sided, unfair and tilted heavily in favour of the US and Israel.
That rejection immediately sent fresh signals through the energy market.
Crude prices reportedly rose by nearly six percent, climbing to around $108.3 per barrel, after Iran pushed back against the US-backed 15-point peace proposal aimed at ending the ongoing US-Israel war involving Tehran. The sharp rise followed a brief drop earlier in the week, when oil had slipped from about $103 to $98 per barrel after US President Donald Trump said Washington was in talks with Iran over ending the conflict.
But that temporary relief did not last.
Once Iran made it clear that it was not ready to accept what it sees as an imbalanced proposal, the market reacted almost instantly. And once again, the fear is not just about war itself, but about what that war could mean for the Strait of Hormuz — one of the most important energy corridors in the world.
That is where the real tension sits.
Tehran has continued to insist that it has a legal and sovereign right to control and toll the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic route through which a major share of the world’s oil and gas passes. Iranian officials, quoted by state-linked media and international outlets, argued that this position is both natural and lawful, making it clear that they are not willing to surrender that leverage easily.
And for global markets, that stance is deeply unsettling.
Because once the Strait of Hormuz becomes a bargaining chip in wartime diplomacy, oil prices stop responding only to supply and demand — they begin reacting to military risk, shipping fear, insurance costs and geopolitical uncertainty.
That is exactly what is now happening.
For Nigeria, however, this is not just a global headline. It is a domestic economic pressure point that ordinary people are already feeling in real time. While crude prices continue to rise internationally, petrol prices at home remain painfully high.
As of yesterday, NNPC Limited was reportedly selling petrol at ₦1,261 per litre in Abuja, while major marketers were dispensing at around ₦1,371 per litre. That is a staggering leap from the period before the crisis escalated in late February, when NNPC stations were selling around ₦860 per litre and major marketers around ₦880 per litre.
That difference is not abstract. It is the kind of increase that quietly enters every part of daily life.
It affects transport fares, food prices, delivery costs, electricity alternatives, small business survival and household spending. In a country where inflation already stretches incomes thin, every fresh jump in fuel cost lands directly on the backs of ordinary Nigerians.
Meanwhile, the diplomatic signals from both Washington and Tehran continue to move in opposite directions.
A senior Iranian official reportedly told Reuters that Iran has not completely ruled out diplomacy, but maintained that the current US proposal does not meet even the minimum conditions needed for a fair peace process. According to the official, the framework was reviewed in detail by top Iranian officials and representatives of Iran’s Supreme Leader, but it was still considered too heavily skewed toward American and Israeli interests.
In other words, Iran is not shutting the door completely — but it is making it clear that it will not walk into a deal it sees as political surrender.
On the US side, Trump has continued to mix threats with pressure tactics. In one of his latest remarks, he said Iran should “get serious” about peace talks and suggested Iranian officials were too afraid to openly admit they were engaging in backchannel discussions. He also described Iran as “begging” for a deal, even as Tehran publicly denied any active willingness to negotiate under current conditions.
That contradiction is now shaping the entire crisis.
On one hand, there are whispers of diplomacy. On the other, there are public threats, rejected envoys and battlefield escalation. That is not a stable environment. And oil traders know it.
Reports also suggest Iran is no longer interested in negotiating through Trump’s preferred diplomatic figures like Steve Witkoff or Jared Kushner, whom Tehran now reportedly sees as part of a deceptive process that disguised military intentions as diplomacy. Instead, Iranian sources cited by The Guardian suggest they would rather deal with US Vice President J.D. Vance, who is viewed as more sceptical of direct American military intervention in the Middle East.
That detail may seem minor, but in diplomacy, personalities matter.
Who is at the table often shapes whether talks collapse, stall or move forward. And right now, even the channel of communication appears to be under dispute.
At the same time, the war itself is becoming more combustible. Israel has now claimed responsibility for killing Alireza Tangsiri, the commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy, whom it accused of overseeing strategic threats linked to the Strait of Hormuz. Israeli officials framed the killing as a major tactical blow, while Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described it as another example of growing US-Israel operational coordination.
That kind of development only raises the stakes further.
And then came yet another striking comment from Trump, who said that taking control of Iran’s oil remains “an option.” It was the kind of statement that instantly deepens uncertainty, not because it confirms policy, but because it widens the range of possible escalation.
When world powers begin talking openly about controlling another country’s oil assets during wartime, markets do not wait for official implementation. They react to the possibility.
That is why crude keeps climbing.
And that is why Nigeria, despite being an oil-producing nation, remains exposed rather than protected.
Because the painful irony is this: when global oil prices rise, Nigeria should ideally benefit from stronger foreign earnings and fiscal breathing room. But because the country still struggles with domestic refining inefficiencies, distribution bottlenecks, forex pressures and weak price buffers, Nigerians often experience the pain of oil volatility far more directly than the benefit.
So while the world watches this conflict as a strategic power struggle, Nigerians are likely to continue experiencing it as a cost-of-living crisis.
And until diplomacy becomes more than rhetoric, the pressure may not ease anytime soon.