The “Prodigal” Peril: Is Nigeria’s Non-Kinetic Military Strategy A Blueprint For National Self-Decapitation?

_By Oto’ Drama, PhD_.

​THE recent pronouncements by the Chief of Defence Staff (CDS), Lt. Gen. Olufemi Oluyede, invoking the biblical parable of the “Prodigal Son” to justify the rehabilitation of terrorists, have sent a shiver through the spine of a nation already weary of a decade-long insurgency.

While the military leadership frames this as a “non-kinetic” masterstroke designed to hollow out the enemy from within, a critical interrogation of the facts suggests a far more more dangerous reality: a stagnating, patronizing, and romanticizing approach that looks less like strategic warfare and more like a lucrative, self-sustaining transaction.

The Trojan Horse in Khaki
​The 48 Laws of Power dictate that the most effective way to subvert an enemy is to rupture the system from within. By “absolving” notorious terrorists and reintegrating them into the socio-military fabric, the Nigerian military is effectively opening the gates to a Trojan Horse.

​Evidence from the frontlines suggests that this “repentance” is often a strategic pause rather than a moral pivot. Reports of soldiers being ambushed in their hundreds daily point to a devastating leak of intelligence. These “make-believe” repentant insurgents, now privy to military movements and logistics, are allegedly funneling critical data to their “cousins” in the forest.
This is not counter-insurgency; it is institutionalized self-sabotage.

The Business of “Self-Survival” Warfare
​For years, the Nigerian public and the international community have been fed a narrative of progress that is belied by the reality of a stagnating conflict. There is a growing, cynical belief among Nigerians that the war against terrorism has been transformed into a pretentious and lucrative venture for the top brass.

​There’s an underline pecuniary fortification. Where the objective should be the total decimation of the enemy, we instead see a transactional warfare model. This is why the Amnesty industry is triving. The Deradicalization, Rehabilitation, and Reintegration (DRR) program, while noble in theory, has become a funnel for state resources that many argue should be directed toward the millions of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) currently languishing in squalor.

​When the military chooses to provide vocational training and stipends to those who have sent others to their makers, while the victims are left to starve, the social contract is not just broken—it is incinerated.

The Putin Doctrine vs. The Oluyede Approach
​While the Nigerian CDS advocates for rehabilitation, global precedents offer a starkly different path. The “Putin Doctrine” on terrorism—uncompromising and terminal—stands in total opposition to the current Nigerian strategy of romanticizing the enemy. In high-stakes national security, the mission is the neutralization of the threat, not the moral reform of the butcher.

​The current leadership seems to have forgotten that an insurgency fueled by extreme ideology does not view an olive branch as a gesture of peace, but as a sign of weakness to be exploited.

​A Blueprint for Sovereignty or Decimation?
​The Nigerian government and the military high command must answer the questions they have long avoided: What is the verifiable success rate of these “repentant” insurgents, and how many have returned to the battlefield? Why are high-level commanders being offered rehabilitation instead of the gallows? Is there a robust, biometric, and digital tracking system in place to monitor every reintegrated individual, or are we relying on the “honor system” with mass murderers?

​Nigeria is currently engaged in a self-imposed war of self-survival. If the military continues to prioritize non-kinetic deals over kinetic decimation, it risks a total collapse of the national security architecture. The “Prodigal Son” analogy may work in the pulpit, but in the trenches of the Northeast, it is a recipe for national suicide.

​The military’s duty is to protect the sovereign integrity of Nigeria, not to act as a rehabilitation center for those committed to its destruction. It is time to end the transaction and return to the business of winning the war.

_Dr. Drama, PhD Counterterrorism contributed this piece via: Nigeriandrama@gmail.com_

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