Characterized by the Iran war and increasing uncertainty in global trade China’s Export growth fell significantly in March. Compared to the same month last year, exports only rose by 2.5 percent, according to data from the Chinese customs authority. In the first two months Exports rose by more than 20 percent. Analysts therefore had one stronger export growth estimated at almost nine percent.
In contrast, imports rose by almost 28 percent in March. According to analyst Zhiwei Zhang from Pinpoint Asset Management, this growth is primarily due to skyrocketing energy prices. As a result, China’s trade surplus shrank to its lowest level in more than a year.
Energy prices are weighing on Chinese companies
Customs data shows that, among other things, exports from the People’s Republic to the USA collapsed. Compared to March 2025, exports there fell by 26.5 percent, to a value of 29.4 billion dollars. Zhang justified this with the uncertainty of the “global macroeconomic outlook.” These would be exacerbated by the conflict in the Middle East. The rising energy prices associated with the Iran war would also burden export-oriented Chinese companies.
Despite the Iran war, China’s exports will reach a “good level” overall in the coming quarters, according to analyst Zichun Huang of Capital Economics. According to him, China is likely to high demand for semiconductors and green technologies benefit. The worry before rising oil prices could increase demand for such products in other countries.
The Chinese government will publish official figures on economic growth in the first quarter on Thursday. Analysts expect 4.8 percent, higher than the 4.5 percent in the last quarter of 2025.